Positioning
Who is actually on each side, and how many of them there are.
A price tells you where a market settled, not what produced it. Two contracts quoting 0.30 look identical whether that is a thousand small positions agreeing or one wallet holding four fifths of one side, and those are not the same market. Every holder here links to a full audit of their record, so the question is not only who is on the other side of your trade but whether they have ever been right.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
One wallet holds 49.5% of the Yes side. At that share the price on this side is substantially one participant's opinion, and their exit is the market's liquidity problem rather than only their own.
Yes
a few wallets- BrightStars1,167,19750%
- Valen9191,9658%
- RememberAmalek110,5175%
- wan123100,0004%
- 3838887,1904%
- adasol80,2303%
- 0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-178340600939669,9943%
- yung-macro57,1482%
- Ditto32150,0002%
- BigRabbit50,0002%
- 88111248,0382%
- suntori37,0482%
No
a crowd- Bertapotamous180,9039%
- JamesBonder007155,3327%
- 0xheavy888150,0007%
- back-in-whack120,5556%
- The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA112,9895%
- afdafdafdafdafd105,0005%
- Trump202898,0455%
- 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-176976431395295,6165%
- elmcap289,2094%
- Tigerofthehood64,3553%
- makinta61,8163%
- mofumofu57,3843%
Concentration asymmetry 0.222: the gap between how concentrated the two sides are. A market with a whale facing a crowd behaves differently from one where both sides are crowds, and the quoted price says nothing about which you are looking at.
Polymarket only, and not by preference: positions there are ERC-1155 balances on a public chain, so anyone can read them. Kalshi's per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so no equivalent view of that venue can be built at any price. Sizes are contracts, and cover the largest visible holders rather than every participant.