Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90–100% | 62 | 100% | 100% | +0pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
89% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $5.2K across 62 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 50,000 | $150 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.9943 | won | 1,975 | $11 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — No | 0.9980 | won | 10,000 | $20 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July? — No | 0.9791 | won | 335 | $7 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? — No | 0.9939 | won | 669 | $4 |
| Trump out as President by July 31? — No | 0.9980 | won | 9,962 | $20 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9970 | won | 169,971 | $510 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No | 0.9970 | won | 175,657 | $527 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2,326 | $2 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 18,852 | $19 |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9987 | won | 192 | $0 |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? — No | 0.9985 | won | 243 | $0 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? — No | 0.9976 | won | 3,671 | $9 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? — No | 0.9974 | won | 6,059 | $16 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? — No | 0.9970 | won | 708 | $2 |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? — No | 0.9932 | won | 581 | $4 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? — No | 0.9980 | won | 19,642 | $39 |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? — No | 0.9960 | won | 2,090 | $8 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? — No | 0.9955 | won | 1,013 | $5 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? — No | 0.9960 | won | 102 | $0 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? — No | 0.9970 | won | 1,316 | $4 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? — No | 0.9970 | won | 1,190 | $4 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No | 0.9970 | won | 25,000 | $75 |
| Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30? — No | 0.9980 | won | 269 | $1 |
| Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? — No | 0.9893 | won | 29 | $0 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? — No | 0.9960 | won | 100 | $0 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? — No | 0.9980 | won | 91 | $0 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 2026? — No | 0.9970 | won | 6 | $0 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? — No | 0.9980 | won | 148 | $0 |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? — No | 0.9980 | won | 108 | $0 |
| Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? — No | 0.9978 | won | 641 | $1 |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? — Yes | 0.9975 | won | 1,793 | $4 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? — No | 0.9980 | won | 811 | $2 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? — No | 0.9970 | won | 5,194 | $16 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? — No | 0.9980 | won | 10,260 | $21 |
| Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? — No | 0.9970 | won | 1,726 | $5 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? — No | 0.9979 | won | 19,625 | $41 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? — No | 0.9980 | won | 2,240 | $5 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? — No | 0.9980 | won | 13,278 | $27 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? — No | 0.9970 | won | 2,084 | $6 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? — No | 0.9970 | won | 473 | $1 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? — No | 0.9980 | won | 1,358 | $3 |
| Will Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary? — No | 0.9990 | won | 52 | $0 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 94,721 | $284 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — No | 0.9952 | won | 6,367 | $30 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? — No | 0.9980 | won | 40,000 | $80 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 20,001 | $20 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? — No | 0.9934 | won | 31,831 | $209 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? — No | 0.9985 | won | 463,710 | $689 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? — No | 0.9990 | won | 372 | $0 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 180,000 | $540 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? — No | 0.9980 | won | 344,512 | $705 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 150,110 | $150 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? — No | 0.9940 | won | 15,000 | $90 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1,105 | $1 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 99,516 | $100 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 62,418 | $62 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9950 | won | 50,000 | $250 |
| Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 1,000 | $1 |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 200,000 | $200 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →