1.5pt
spread
high · 89%
title 67 · entity 100 · date 99
shared: kamala harris, democratic
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One normalised feed across Polymarket and Kalshi. Krāmma surfaces the markets where better information could still change a decision, and goes and finds that information when a price alone is not enough.
Everything else here answers a question about 57,000 markets. A watchlist answers one about the handful you actually hold a view on: what moved, what has a gap worth taking, and whose outcome is being disputed.
What each plan includes →An outcome has been proposed and then challenged. Until the oracle decides, these are not settled and the price is a poor description of what a position is worth.
Polymarket only. Kalshi settles against its own rules and publishes nothing equivalent, so silence there means unknown rather than safe.
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Fed decision in Oct 2026?: Fed maintains rate
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Selected on signals that actually fire: resolving within 30 days, priced between 8% and 92% so the outcome is still in doubt, ranked by volume. A contract at 98% resolving next week is not a question anyone needs help with.
This is a corroboration tool, not an opportunity finder. Measured against both live catalogues, spread size and match validity are inversely related: every correct pair agrees to within about two points, and every wide gap turned out to be a false match built on an incidental shared token: a Wisconsin governor race paired with Wisconsin milk production, a NATO-Russia clash paired with New York subway ridership.
So pairs are ranked by confidence and never by spread, and only the high band is shown. Composite ≥ 0.8 qualifies; every medium-band pair observed so far has been wrong, so showing them beside correct ones would imply a reliability they do not have. They are still scored below 0.4 and still discarded.
Coverage is inherently thin. The venues largely trade different things, Polymarket lists dozens of crypto and geopolitics markets where Kalshi's top catalogue has none, so only a small share of markets has any counterpart at all. Full method →
17 medium-confidence pairs scored but not shown. Every one observed so far has been a false match.
| Venue | Market | Probability | Quote | Volume | Closes | Follow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ▎historyGeopolitics · Military Strikes | 16.5% | 1.0pt | $73.9M | 2027-01-01 | |
| Polymarket | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? ▎historyGeneral · Parent For Derivative | 1.4% | 0.1pt | $66.5M | 2027-01-01 | |
| Polymarket | Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ▎historyPolitics · President | 0.1% | n/a | $54.9M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $54.4M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 2.3% | 0.1pt | $52.9M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.8% | 0.2pt | $50.9M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $48.9M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ▎historyPolitics · President | 0.1% | n/a | $44.9M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.3% | 0.2pt | $44.7M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $44.5M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $44.3M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $44.2M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? ▎historyGeopolitics · Politics | 2.3% | 0.1pt | $44.0M | 2027-01-01 | |
| Polymarket | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $43.8M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $43.7M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $43.5M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $42.9M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $42.9M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $42.8M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? ▎historyGeneral · Aliens | 4.0% | 0.1pt | $41.5M | 2027-01-01 | |
| Polymarket | Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $41.1M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ▎historyPolitics · President | 0.1% | n/a | $40.3M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $39.0M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $38.7M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $38.2M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ▎historyPolitics · President | 0.1% | n/a | $38.0M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $37.7M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $36.5M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Kalshi | Which party will win the U.S. House?: Republican Party ▎historyPolitics · Elections | 10.5% | 1.0pt | $36.3M | 2027-02-01 | |
| Polymarket | Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $36.1M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $35.8M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? ▎historyPolitics · Davos | 2.3% | 0.1pt | $35.7M | 2027-01-01 | |
| Polymarket | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ▎historyPolitics · President | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $35.5M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ▎historyPolitics · President | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $35.4M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $34.2M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 1.7% | 0.1pt | $34.2M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ▎historyPolitics · President | 0.1% | n/a | $33.7M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | n/a | $33.0M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? ▎historyGeneral · Trump-Machado | 0.1% | n/a | $32.8M | 2026-12-31 | |
| Polymarket | Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.3% | 0.1pt | $31.8M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Kalshi | More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?: Yes ▎historyCompanies · Economics | 94.0% | 0.3pt | $31.5M | 2027-03-01 | |
| Polymarket | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $31.4M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ▎historyPolitics · President | 0.1% | n/a | $30.3M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? ▎historySports · UCL | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $29.8M | 2027-05-30 | |
| Polymarket | Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.3% | 0.1pt | $29.0M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Kalshi | Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?: Before Jan 1, 2027 ▎historyGeneral · Science and Technology | 4.5% | 0.1pt | $28.9M | 2027-01-01 | |
| Polymarket | Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $28.6M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ▎historyPolitics · President | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $28.3M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 0.1% | 0.1pt | $28.2M | 2028-11-08 | |
| Polymarket | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? ▎historyPolitics · United States | 14.1% | 0.1pt | $28.0M | 2028-11-08 |
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1 to 50 of 81,381 markets
Every market listed on either venue with a readable price, 50 at a time. The second label on a market is the venue's own category where it publishes one, which will not always agree with ours. Probability is the mid of the quoted spread rather than the last traded price: on a thin market a last trade can be days stale while the book is current.