Cross-venue terminal

One normalised feed across Polymarket and Kalshi. Kramma surfaces the markets where better information could still change a decision, and goes and finds that information when a price alone is not enough.

POLYMARKET, LIVEKALSHI, LIVEjust now

Markets loaded

3600

Polymarket

600

Kalshi

3000

Live and undecided

01Worth a look

Money on it, settles soon, outcome still in doubt. These are the positions being taken on instinct today.

Polymarketcloses in 18d

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Polymarketcloses in 18d

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Polymarketcloses in 7d

Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics

Polymarketcloses in 7d

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels

Polymarketcloses in 19h

UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Polymarketcloses in 3d

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?

Polymarketcloses in 17d

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

Polymarketcloses in 2d

Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?

Polymarketcloses in 17d

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?

Polymarketcloses in 19h

UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card)

Polymarketcloses in 19h

UFC Fight Night: Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)

Polymarketcloses in 2d

Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?

Selected on signals that actually fire: resolving within 30 days, priced between 8% and 92% so the outcome is still in doubt, ranked by volume. A contract at 98% resolving next week is not a question anyone needs help with.

Everything here is currently Polymarket, and that is a property of the venues rather than a filter. Of 36,000 Kalshi markets in its public events feed, 76 close within 30 days and only a handful of those are both liquid and genuinely undecided, its catalogue runs long-dated, and its daily markets are not exposed on that feed.

02Cross-venue cross-check

Where the same event trades on both venues, two independent prices are a stronger reading than one. Confirming a pair writes to the match graph.

What this is for, and what it is not for

This is a corroboration tool, not an opportunity finder. Measured against both live catalogues, spread size and match validity are inversely related: every correct pair agrees to within about two points, and every wide gap turned out to be a false match built on an incidental shared token: a Wisconsin governor race paired with Wisconsin milk production, a NATO-Russia clash paired with New York subway ridership.

So pairs are ranked by confidence and never by spread, and only the high band is shown. Composite ≥ 0.8 qualifies; every medium-band pair observed so far has been wrong, so showing them beside correct ones would imply a reliability they do not have. They are still scored below 0.4 and still discarded.

Coverage is inherently thin. The venues largely trade different things, Polymarket lists dozens of crypto and geopolitics markets where Kalshi's top catalogue has none, so only a small share of markets has any counterpart at all. Full method →

14 proposed · 0 confirmedhide rejected

PolymarketWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

17.3%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

16.5%

0.8pt

spread

high · 91%

title 71 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: alexandria ocasio-cortez, democratic

PolymarketWill Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.4%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee: Pete Hegseth

0.7%

0.4pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: pete hegseth, republican

PolymarketWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

16.4%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee: Marco Rubio

18.5%

2.0pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: marco rubio, republican

PolymarketWill Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.9%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee: Ted Cruz

1.4%

0.5pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: ted cruz, republican

PolymarketWill Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

5.5%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Pete Buttigieg

5.3%

0.1pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: pete buttigieg, democratic

PolymarketWill Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

0.5%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Hunter Biden

0.4%

0.1pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: hunter biden, democratic

PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

14.3%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Gavin Newsom

12.5%

1.8pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: gavin newsom, democratic

PolymarketWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

7.7%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Kamala Harris

8.2%

0.5pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: kamala harris, democratic

PolymarketWill Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.7%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee: Ivanka Trump

1.1%

0.4pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: ivanka trump, republican

PolymarketWill Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

2.5%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee: Ron DeSantis

4.8%

2.3pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: ron desantis, republican

PolymarketWill Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.8%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee: Elon Musk

0.3%

0.5pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: elon musk, republican

PolymarketWill James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

2.4%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee: James Talarico

1.6%

0.8pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: james talarico, democratic

PolymarketWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

47.8%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee: J.D. Vance

43.5%

4.3pt

spread

high · 87%

title 60 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: j.d. vance, republican

PolymarketWill J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

1.1%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee: J.B. Pritzker

1.7%

0.5pt

spread

high · 87%

title 60 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: j.b. pritzker, democratic

32 medium-confidence pairs scored but not shown. Every one observed so far has been a false match.

03Normalised feed

Top 250 by volume per venue, mapped into one schema: venue, title, category, probability, quote width, volume, close date.

Venue	Market	Probability	Quote	Volume	Closes
Kalshi	Will the Citrini scenario happen?: Yes General	17.5%	1.0pt	$25.9M	2028-07-01
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Gavin Newsom Politics	12.5%	1.0pt	$9.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Politics	16.5%	1.0pt	$8.8M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Hunter Biden Politics	0.4%	0.1pt	$7.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Jon Ossoff Politics	16.5%	1.0pt	$7.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Philadelphia Sports	9.5%	1.0pt	$7.4M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Zohran Mamdani Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$7.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Mark Kelly Politics	5.0%	0.3pt	$7.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Kamala Harris Politics	8.2%	0.3pt	$7.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Rahm Emanuel Politics	3.9%	0.1pt	$6.7M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Stephen A. Smith Politics	0.4%	0.2pt	$6.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Ro Khanna Politics	1.8%	0.1pt	$6.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: James Talarico Politics	1.6%	0.1pt	$6.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Pete Buttigieg Politics	5.3%	0.1pt	$6.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Michelle Obama Politics	1.5%	0.4pt	$5.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Josh Shapiro Politics	4.9%	0.2pt	$5.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Barack Obama Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$5.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Marco Rubio Politics	18.5%	1.0pt	$5.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Andy Beshear Politics	3.6%	0.1pt	$5.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Marco Rubio Politics	12.5%	1.0pt	$5.0M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: J.B. Pritzker Politics	1.7%	0.1pt	$5.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Mark Cuban Politics	0.6%	0.2pt	$4.8M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Wes Moore Politics	2.5%	0.1pt	$4.7M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Jon Stewart Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$4.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Tucker Carlson Politics	3.4%	0.2pt	$4.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Gretchen Whitmer Politics	0.9%	0.1pt	$4.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: J.D. Vance Politics	43.5%	1.0pt	$4.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Donald J. Trump Politics	2.0%	0.2pt	$4.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Bernie Sanders Politics	0.3%	0.2pt	$4.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Politics	12.0%	2.0pt	$4.0M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Raphael Warnock Politics	0.8%	0.1pt	$4.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: J.D. Vance Politics	21.0%	2.0pt	$4.0M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Jon Ossoff Politics	10.5%	1.0pt	$3.9M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Chris Murphy Politics	0.7%	0.1pt	$3.9M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: John Fetterman Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$3.9M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Gavin Newsom Politics	8.5%	0.1pt	$3.6M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?: Before January 20, 2029 Politics	19.5%	1.0pt	$3.5M	2029-01-20
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Elissa Slotkin Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$3.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Cory Booker Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$3.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Donald J. Trump Politics	3.0%	0.2pt	$3.4M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Ruben Gallego Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$3.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Thomas Massie Politics	1.0%	0.2pt	$3.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Abdul El-Sayed Politics	1.5%	1.0pt	$3.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Jamie Dimon Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$3.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Marjorie Taylor Greene Politics	0.8%	0.1pt	$3.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Andrew Yang Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$3.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Ron DeSantis Politics	4.8%	0.1pt	$3.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Roy Cooper Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$2.9M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Donald J. Trump Jr. Politics	3.6%	0.1pt	$2.8M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?: Before January 21, 2029 General	25.0%	2.0pt	$2.8M	2029-01-21
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Hillary Clinton Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$2.7M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Kamala Harris Politics	4.3%	0.1pt	$2.6M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Tucker Carlson Politics	2.3%	0.3pt	$2.6M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Miami Sports	3.5%	1.0pt	$2.4M	2029-07-30
Polymarket	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Economics	54.5%	1.0pt	$2.4M	2026-09-16
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Donald J. Trump Jr. Politics	1.0%	0.1pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Wes Moore Politics	1.4%	0.2pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Pete Buttigieg Politics	3.3%	0.4pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Gretchen Whitmer Politics	1.0%	0.2pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: J.B. Pritzker Politics	1.1%	0.2pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Ron DeSantis Politics	3.4%	0.1pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Nikki Haley Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$2.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Amy Klobuchar Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$2.2M	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Economics	45.5%	1.0pt	$2.2M	2026-09-16
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Mark Kelly Politics	3.4%	0.2pt	$2.1M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Ivanka Trump Politics	1.1%	0.2pt	$2.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Andy Beshear Politics	3.1%	0.2pt	$1.9M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Josh Shapiro Politics	2.7%	0.2pt	$1.9M	2029-11-07
Polymarket	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Economics	0.7%	0.1pt	$1.9M	2026-09-16
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Stephen A. Smith Politics	0.2%	0.2pt	$1.8M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Tulsi Gabbard Politics	0.7%	0.3pt	$1.8M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?: Paramount General	81.5%	1.0pt	$1.8M	2027-07-01
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Golden State Sports	1.5%	1.0pt	$1.7M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Vivek Ramaswamy Politics	0.3%	0.2pt	$1.7M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Rahm Emanuel Politics	1.5%	1.0pt	$1.7M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Los Angeles L Sports	2.5%	1.0pt	$1.6M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?: Netflix Culture	2.5%	1.0pt	$1.5M	2027-07-01
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Minnesota Sports	3.5%	1.0pt	$1.5M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?: Before 2027 Politics	4.3%	0.1pt	$1.5M	2027-01-01
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Tulsi Gabbard Politics	0.3%	0.2pt	$1.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Ted Cruz Politics	1.4%	0.1pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Elon Musk Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture: The Odyssey Culture	57.5%	1.0pt	$1.4M	2027-12-31
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Josh Hawley Politics	0.8%	0.1pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Brian Kemp Politics	0.7%	0.1pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Vivek Ramaswamy Politics	0.4%	0.1pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Eric Trump Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$1.3M	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Economics	0.7%	0.1pt	$1.3M	2026-09-16
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Greg Abbott Politics	0.7%	0.1pt	$1.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Mike Pence Politics	0.6%	0.2pt	$1.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Rand Paul Politics	0.5%	0.2pt	$1.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Politics	0.4%	0.1pt	$1.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Orlando Sports	1.5%	1.0pt	$1.3M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Glenn Youngkin Politics	0.4%	0.1pt	$1.2M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Byron Donalds Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$1.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Sarah Huckabee Sanders Politics	0.6%	0.2pt	$1.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Pete Hegseth Politics	0.7%	0.2pt	$1.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Jamie Dimon Politics	0.4%	0.1pt	$1.1M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Nicki Minaj Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$1.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Glenn Youngkin Politics	1.0%	0.2pt	$1.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: New York Sports	8.5%	1.0pt	$956K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?: None before July 2027 General	16.0%	2.0pt	$924K	2027-07-01
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Erika Kirk Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$911K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Steve Bannon Politics	0.3%	0.2pt	$897K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Cleveland Sports	2.5%	1.0pt	$879K	2029-07-30
Polymarket	Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics Sports	84.0%	2.0pt	$861K	2026-09-05
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Matt Gaetz Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$856K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	How much will the US acquire Greenland for?: $0 / No Acquisition General	84.5%	3.0pt	$811K	2029-01-22
Polymarket	Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery Sports	0.1%	n/a	$806K	2026-09-04
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Katie Britt Politics	0.3%	0.2pt	$802K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Toronto Sports	2.5%	1.0pt	$796K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Elise Stefanik Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$696K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?: Before his term ends Politics	15.0%	2.0pt	$650K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: San Antonio Sports	23.5%	1.0pt	$641K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?: Before 2028 General	5.5%	1.0pt	$639K	2028-01-01
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Indiana Sports	1.5%	1.0pt	$606K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: Scott Jennings Politics	20.5%	1.0pt	$592K	2029-01-21
Kalshi	Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?: During Trump's term Politics	24.0%	2.0pt	$587K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Champion: Philadelphia Sports	22.5%	1.0pt	$576K	2029-06-29
Kalshi	2026: Trump's dream year?: Yes Politics	4.1%	1.9pt	$563K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: Tom Cotton Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$531K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Will President Trump be impeached during his term?: Before Jan 20, 2029 Politics	65.0%	2.0pt	$520K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?: Before 2027 General	5.1%	0.2pt	$502K	2027-01-01
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Oklahoma City Sports	22.5%	1.0pt	$488K	2029-07-30
Polymarket	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Geopolitics	0.3%	0.1pt	$483K	2026-09-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Michigan Sports	3.0%	0.1pt	$482K	2027-04-27
Polymarket	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels Sports	85.0%	2.0pt	$460K	2026-09-05
Kalshi	Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond: Callum Turner Culture	27.5%	1.0pt	$452K	2030-01-01
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Denver Sports	3.5%	1.0pt	$434K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot): Republicans win General	8.8%	0.1pt	$430K	2027-11-03
Polymarket	Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Sports	0.1%	0.1pt	$425K	2027-05-30
Kalshi	What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?: Greenland Politics	1.7%	0.5pt	$421K	2029-01-20
Polymarket	Will Club León FC win on 2026-08-28? Sports	0.1%	n/a	$420K	2026-08-29
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Boston Sports	4.5%	1.0pt	$419K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation: Indiana Sports	40.5%	3.0pt	$417K	2028-09-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Greg Abbott Politics	0.2%	0.2pt	$401K	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee: John Thune Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$401K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Nikki Haley Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$393K	2029-11-07
Polymarket	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Economics	0.3%	0.1pt	$388K	2026-09-16
Kalshi	What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?: Venezuela Politics	2.8%	0.3pt	$385K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Duke Sports	12.5%	1.0pt	$377K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Champions League Winner: Barcelona Sports	19.0%	2.0pt	$361K	2027-06-19
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture: Dune: Part Three Culture	13.5%	1.0pt	$357K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion: Chelsea Sports	15.5%	1.0pt	$351K	2027-06-13
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion: Arsenal Sports	51.5%	1.0pt	$351K	2027-06-13
Kalshi	Will Trump resign during his term?: Before his term ends Politics	19.0%	2.0pt	$340K	2029-01-21
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion: Manchester City Sports	22.5%	1.0pt	$337K	2027-06-13
Kalshi	Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?: Before 2027 Politics	17.5%	1.0pt	$334K	2027-01-01
Kalshi	Champions League Winner: Real Madrid Sports	16.5%	1.0pt	$329K	2027-06-19
Kalshi	Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?: Before Jan 1, 2029 Politics	6.6%	0.7pt	$302K	2029-01-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Florida Sports	13.5%	1.0pt	$301K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?: Yes Geopolitics	1.7%	0.7pt	$301K	2027-03-01
Kalshi	2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party): Republican party Politics	41.5%	1.0pt	$301K	2029-11-07
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion: Tottenham Sports	2.5%	1.0pt	$294K	2027-06-13
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: St. John's Sports	2.6%	0.9pt	$290K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: Alina Habba Politics	3.3%	1.5pt	$287K	2029-01-21
Polymarket	Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-08-28? Sports	100.0%	0.1pt	$282K	2026-08-29
Kalshi	2028 Republican VP nominee: Marco Rubio Politics	27.5%	1.0pt	$281K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: North Carolina Sports	4.2%	0.1pt	$279K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Politics	8.0%	0.1pt	$276K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion: Manchester United Sports	5.5%	1.0pt	$270K	2027-06-13
Polymarket	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Politics	0.4%	0.1pt	$268K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation: A new location in Illinois Sports	57.0%	4.0pt	$267K	2028-09-07
Polymarket	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29? Sports	65.5%	1.0pt	$267K	2026-08-29
Kalshi	Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond: Jacob Elordi Culture	10.5%	1.0pt	$267K	2030-01-01
Kalshi	Recession in 2027?: Yes Economics	26.5%	1.0pt	$262K	2028-01-31
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Texas Tech Sports	5.7%	0.1pt	$254K	2027-04-27
Polymarket	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Politics	73.5%	1.0pt	$252K	2026-09-30
Polymarket	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics	3.5%	0.1pt	$251K	2026-10-04
Kalshi	2026: Trump's bad year?: Yes Politics	8.3%	3.4pt	$251K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture: The Black Ball Culture	8.5%	1.0pt	$247K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party): Democratic party Politics	58.0%	2.0pt	$245K	2029-11-07
Kalshi	Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond: Aaron Taylor-Johnson Culture	4.5%	1.0pt	$239K	2030-01-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Arkansas Sports	3.0%	0.5pt	$237K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture: Project Hail Mary Culture	1.5%	1.0pt	$236K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?: Cuba Politics	3.5%	1.0pt	$236K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: Anna Kelly Politics	20.5%	1.0pt	$234K	2029-01-21
Kalshi	Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: Natalie Harp Politics	3.5%	1.0pt	$233K	2029-01-21
Polymarket	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Sports	97.2%	0.4pt	$231K	2026-09-05
Polymarket	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Politics	0.3%	0.2pt	$230K	2026-06-01
Kalshi	AK-AL primary: Who will advance?: John Brendan Williams General	93.0%	2.0pt	$224K	2028-05-18
Polymarket	UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sports	15.5%	1.0pt	$223K	2026-08-30
Kalshi	Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?: Before Jan 20, 2029 Politics	46.5%	5.0pt	$217K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	2030 FIFA World Cup Champion: Spain Sports	12.3%	0.1pt	$216K	2031-01-15
Polymarket	Washington Mystics vs. Los Angeles Sparks Sports	0.1%	n/a	$214K	2026-08-29
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Detroit Sports	2.5%	1.0pt	$214K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Champion: Miami Sports	7.5%	1.0pt	$213K	2029-06-29
Polymarket	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Geopolitics	13.5%	1.0pt	$212K	2027-01-01
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee: Gretchen Whitmer Politics	9.6%	0.1pt	$208K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?: Puerto Rico Politics	1.6%	0.4pt	$202K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?: Before Jan 1, 2027 Geopolitics	4.3%	3.3pt	$200K	2027-01-01
Polymarket	Trump out as President by August 31? Politics	0.1%	n/a	$198K	2026-09-01
Kalshi	2028 Republican VP nominee: J.D. Vance Politics	5.5%	0.7pt	$198K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?: Canada Politics	1.3%	0.4pt	$195K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	How much will the US acquire Greenland for?: $600 billion to $899 billion General	3.2%	2.4pt	$194K	2029-01-22
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture: Wild Horse Nine Culture	6.5%	1.0pt	$193K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Kentucky Sports	2.6%	0.1pt	$189K	2027-04-27
Polymarket	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? General	1.4%	0.1pt	$188K	2027-01-01
Kalshi	Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Champion: New York Sports	21.5%	1.0pt	$184K	2029-06-29
Kalshi	Maine-Texas Senate Combo: Ken Paxton and Susan Collins Politics	27.0%	2.0pt	$180K	2027-11-03
Kalshi	Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?: Anthropic Tech	92.5%	1.0pt	$178K	2040-01-01
Kalshi	Will there be a Trump economic boom?: Above 5% Politics	22.3%	4.0pt	$177K	2029-01-26
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture: Digger Culture	5.5%	1.0pt	$176K	2027-12-31
Polymarket	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-08-29? Sports	54.5%	1.0pt	$176K	2026-08-29
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: LSU Sports	1.7%	0.1pt	$175K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?: Before 2029 Politics	28.5%	1.0pt	$174K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?: OpenAI Tech	7.0%	2.0pt	$171K	2040-01-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Syracuse Sports	0.3%	0.2pt	$169K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Texas Sports	4.3%	0.5pt	$168K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: BYU Sports	0.7%	0.4pt	$167K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Gonzaga Sports	2.7%	0.2pt	$162K	2027-04-27
Polymarket	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? Geopolitics	97.3%	0.2pt	$161K	2026-08-31
Polymarket	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Geopolitics	0.7%	0.1pt	$161K	2026-09-01
Kalshi	Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: Margo Martin Politics	12.5%	1.0pt	$160K	2029-01-21
Kalshi	Liga MX Clausura Champion: Cruz Azul General	20.0%	2.0pt	$160K	2027-06-16
Kalshi	Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?: Before Jan 20, 2029 Politics	15.5%	3.0pt	$160K	2029-01-20
Polymarket	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August? Crypto	22.5%	1.0pt	$157K	2026-09-01
Kalshi	Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation: Do not relocate or announce a relocation Sports	5.0%	4.0pt	$156K	2028-09-07
Kalshi	Will the US acquire any new territory?: Before Jan 2027 General	4.5%	2.1pt	$154K	2027-01-01
Kalshi	Texas Senate: Exact outcome: Paxton defeats Talarico Politics	51.5%	1.0pt	$153K	2028-01-03
Kalshi	Which agencies will Trump eliminate?: USAID Politics	24.5%	3.0pt	$152K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion: Houston Sports	1.5%	1.0pt	$151K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee: Gavin Newsom Politics	4.0%	0.1pt	$149K	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? Crypto	5.1%	0.1pt	$147K	2026-09-01
Polymarket	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? Crypto	1.8%	0.1pt	$146K	2026-09-01
Polymarket	Spread: Coventry City FC (-1.5) General	30.5%	1.0pt	$146K	2026-08-29
Kalshi	When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?: Before Oct 1, 2026 General	4.0%	2.0pt	$145K	2026-10-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Illinois Sports	7.2%	0.2pt	$144K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals Winner: Florida Panthers Sports	11.5%	1.0pt	$143K	2029-06-30
Kalshi	Champions League Winner: Arsenal Sports	14.5%	1.0pt	$143K	2027-06-19
Kalshi	2028 Republican VP nominee: Erika Kirk Politics	1.8%	2.0pt	$142K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Will the US take control of any part of Canada?: Before 2029 General	7.8%	1.3pt	$142K	2029-01-21
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee: Jon Ossoff Politics	5.3%	0.3pt	$142K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Champions League Winner: PSG Sports	14.5%	1.0pt	$142K	2027-06-19
Polymarket	LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs Sports	0.1%	n/a	$141K	2026-08-29
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee: James Talarico Politics	3.0%	2.0pt	$141K	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-08-29? Sports	48.5%	1.0pt	$140K	2026-08-29
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Clemson Sports	0.1%	0.1pt	$139K	2027-04-27
Polymarket	US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? Geopolitics	86.5%	1.0pt	$138K	2026-09-15
Kalshi	2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot): Democrats, 0 to 2% General	2.1%	0.2pt	$138K	2027-11-03
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee: Andy Beshear Politics	5.9%	1.7pt	$136K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee: Kamala Harris Politics	1.6%	0.7pt	$133K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee: Pete Buttigieg Politics	7.0%	1.6pt	$132K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion: Liverpool Sports	6.5%	1.0pt	$132K	2027-06-13
Kalshi	Maine-Texas Senate Combo: James Talarico and Susan Collins Politics	8.5%	1.0pt	$132K	2027-11-03
Kalshi	Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?: Before Jan 20, 2029 Politics	8.1%	2.1pt	$131K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?: Before Jan 1, 2027 Tech	17.0%	2.0pt	$131K	2027-01-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion: Michigan St. Sports	4.0%	0.1pt	$131K	2027-04-27
Polymarket	Atlante FC vs. Club León FC: O/U 2.5 Sports	0.1%	n/a	$131K	2026-08-29

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Showing 250 of 500 matching · 500 markets loaded. Probability is the mid of the quoted spread, not the last traded price, on a thin market a last trade can be days stale while the book is current.