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Which wallets have actually been right, ranked by accuracy rather than by money.
Every other leaderboard in this market ranks lifetime profit. Profit is mostly a measure of how much capital an address deployed: put ten million dollars into contracts trading at 0.97 and collect, and you top the table having demonstrated nothing. The ordering here is a forecasting score computed from settled positions, which is the thing that cannot be bought.
Entry prices are the forecasts. Every fill is a timestamped, price-stamped statement of belief recorded on Polygon, so nobody had to keep a diary and nobody can revise one.
Accuracy against the wallet’s own base rate. The harsh comparison: it asks whether picking these markets beat simply knowing how often this wallet wins.
| # | Wallet | Skill | Brier | Cal. error | Win rate | Scored | Realised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aeglos | 0.958 | 0.004 | 0.060 | 89% | 9/19 | $27.5K |
| 2 | lirio123 | 0.886 | 0.016 | 0.101 | 17% | 12/13 | −$5.7K |
| 3 | Crypto4thewin | 0.798 | 0.047 | 0.182 | 38% | 8/10 | −$503 |
| 4 | someone2026 | 0.743 | 0.041 | 0.156 | 80% | 10/15 | $7.6K |
| 5 | makePace67 | 0.739 | 0.055 | 0.184 | 70% | 10/16 | −$3 |
| 6 | 0xc615d34879c57eeF6ab81cF8F6e3d239EAe7e982-1768826962316 | 0.695 | 0.072 | 0.116 | 38% | 13/21 | $4.2K |
| 7 | Beyonddream | 0.662 | 0.053 | 0.097 | 81% | 62/104 | −$1.3K |
| 8 | chriszyy3 | 0.623 | 0.060 | 0.116 | 80% | 25/104 | $3.5K |
| 9 | 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | 0.621 | 0.063 | 0.043 | 79% | 290/1955 | $3.6K |
| 10 | 0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a | 0.613 | 0.095 | 0.056 | 44% | 168/294 | $76.2K |
Ranked from 173 wallets with at least 8 scoreable positions — held to settlement, entered between 0.02 and 0.98 — drawn from 255 scored out of 3,185 discovered. This is a sample of the venue, not a census of it.
You are seeing the top 10 wallets, ranked by skill. On Trader the whole board is readable and you can rank it by raw accuracy, by calibration, or by money made instead.
163 further ranked wallets are not shown. They are not hidden in this page — they were never requested from the database.
What each plan includes →A wallet appears here once 8 of its settled positions were forecasts: held until the market closed, and entered between 0.02 and 0.98. Both exclusions are load-bearing. A position sold before resolution never took a view on the outcome, and across a sample of 5,592 settled legs a quarter were entered at 0.98 or above — bets on things already decided, which score almost perfectly and demonstrate nothing. Ranking on the raw settled count put three such wallets at the top of this board, one of which had staked $6,175 to make $1.20.
The board is drawn from wallets found holding size in the busiest markets, scored a few dozen at a time because rebuilding one settled record means paginating a wallet's whole fill history — so it is a widening sample rather than a census, and the sentence above the fold says how wide.
An entry price is not a stated forecast. Buying at 0.57 means the trader believed the true probability was at least 0.57, not exactly 0.57, so these scores measure whether entry prices were well calibrated — a slightly harsher question than whether stated beliefs were, and an unfakeable one.
Polymarket only, and not by preference: positions there are ERC-1155 balances on a public chain, so anyone can read them. Kalshi's per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so no equivalent ranking of that venue can be built at any price.