Cross-venue terminal

One normalised feed across Polymarket and Kalshi. Kramma surfaces the markets where better information could still change a decision, and goes and finds that information when a price alone is not enough.

POLYMARKET — LIVEKALSHI — LIVEjust now

Markets loaded

3600

Polymarket

600

Kalshi

3000

Live and undecided

01Worth a look

Money on it, settles soon, outcome still in doubt. These are the positions being taken on instinct today.

Polymarketcloses in 5d

US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken

Polymarketcloses in 18d

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Polymarketcloses in 5d

US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov

Polymarketcloses in 5d

US Open, Qualification WTA: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Pridankina

Polymarketcloses in 10h

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5

Polymarketcloses in 18d

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Polymarketcloses in 3d

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?

Polymarketcloses in 3d

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?

Crypto

$108K

0.1pt quote

Polymarketcloses in 5d

US Open, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Anouk Koevermans

Polymarketcloses in 1d

UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Polymarketcloses in 3d

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August?

Polymarketcloses in 5d

US Open, Qualification ATP: Lloyd Harris vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Selected on signals that actually fire: resolving within 30 days, priced between 8% and 92% so the outcome is still in doubt, ranked by volume. A contract at 98% resolving next week is not a question anyone needs help with.

Everything here is currently Polymarket, and that is a property of the venues rather than a filter. Of 36,000 Kalshi markets in its public events feed, 76 close within 30 days and only a handful of those are both liquid and genuinely undecided — its catalogue runs long-dated, and its daily markets are not exposed on that feed.

02Depth on demand

A price tells you what the crowd concluded. It does not tell you what they knew, or what lands before the market resolves.

Brief · compiled 2026-08-28

Will the Fed raise rates at the September 2026 meeting?

The market has swung from expecting a hike to expecting a hold in under a month, on one bad payrolls print. Two data releases land before the decision, and either can swing it back.

Read the brief →

03Cross-venue cross-check

Where the same event trades on both venues, two independent prices are a stronger reading than one. Confirming a pair writes to the match graph.

What this is for, and what it is not for

This is a corroboration tool, not an opportunity finder. Measured against both live catalogues, spread size and match validity are inversely related: every correct pair agrees to within about two points, and every wide gap turned out to be a false match built on an incidental shared token — a Wisconsin governor race paired with Wisconsin milk production, a NATO-Russia clash paired with New York subway ridership.

So pairs are ranked by confidence and never by spread, and only the high band is shown. Composite ≥ 0.8 qualifies; every medium-band pair observed so far has been wrong, so showing them beside correct ones would imply a reliability they do not have. They are still scored below 0.4 and still discarded.

Coverage is inherently thin. The venues largely trade different things — Polymarket lists dozens of crypto and geopolitics markets where Kalshi's top catalogue has none — so only a small share of markets has any counterpart at all. Full method →

11 proposed · 0 confirmedhide rejected

PolymarketWill Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

0.5%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Cory Booker

0.5%

0.0pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: cory booker, democratic

PolymarketWill Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.3%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee — Nikki Haley

0.5%

0.2pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: nikki haley, republican

PolymarketWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

8.2%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Kamala Harris

8.8%

0.5pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: kamala harris, democratic

PolymarketWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

17.6%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee — Marco Rubio

18.5%

0.9pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: marco rubio, republican

PolymarketWill Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.9%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee — Ted Cruz

1.4%

0.4pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: ted cruz, republican

PolymarketWill Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

5.3%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Pete Buttigieg

5.3%

0.1pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: pete buttigieg, democratic

PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

14.8%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Gavin Newsom

12.5%

2.3pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: gavin newsom, democratic

PolymarketWill Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.8%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee — Ivanka Trump

1.1%

0.3pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: ivanka trump, republican

PolymarketWill Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

0.7%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Michelle Obama

1.2%

0.5pt

spread

high · 89%

title 67 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: michelle obama, democratic

PolymarketWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

47.8%

Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee — J.D. Vance

43.5%

4.2pt

spread

high · 87%

title 60 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: j.d. vance, republican

PolymarketWill J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

1.1%

Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee — J.B. Pritzker

1.8%

0.6pt

spread

high · 87%

title 60 · entity 100 · date 100

shared: j.b. pritzker, democratic

28 medium-confidence pairs scored but not shown. Every one observed so far has been a false match.

04Normalised feed

Top 250 by volume per venue, mapped into one schema: venue, title, category, probability, quote width, volume, close date.

Venue	Market	Probability	Quote	Volume	Closes
Kalshi	Will the Citrini scenario happen? — Yes General	17.5%	1.0pt	$25.9M	2028-07-01
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Gavin Newsom Politics	12.5%	1.0pt	$9.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Politics	16.5%	1.0pt	$8.7M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Hunter Biden Politics	0.4%	0.1pt	$7.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Jon Ossoff Politics	16.5%	1.0pt	$7.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Philadelphia General	9.5%	1.0pt	$7.4M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Zohran Mamdani Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$7.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Mark Kelly Politics	4.8%	0.2pt	$7.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Kamala Harris Politics	8.8%	0.3pt	$7.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Rahm Emanuel Politics	4.2%	0.1pt	$6.7M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Stephen A. Smith Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$6.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Ro Khanna Politics	1.8%	0.1pt	$6.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — James Talarico Politics	1.6%	0.1pt	$6.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Pete Buttigieg Politics	5.3%	0.1pt	$6.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Michelle Obama Politics	1.2%	0.4pt	$5.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Josh Shapiro Politics	4.9%	0.2pt	$5.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Barack Obama Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$5.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Marco Rubio Politics	18.5%	1.0pt	$5.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Andy Beshear Politics	3.6%	0.2pt	$5.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Marco Rubio Politics	11.5%	1.0pt	$5.0M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — J.B. Pritzker Politics	1.8%	0.1pt	$5.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Mark Cuban Politics	0.8%	0.3pt	$4.8M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Wes Moore Politics	2.6%	0.1pt	$4.7M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Jon Stewart Politics	0.7%	0.1pt	$4.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Tucker Carlson Politics	3.4%	0.1pt	$4.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Gretchen Whitmer Politics	0.9%	0.1pt	$4.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — J.D. Vance Politics	43.5%	1.0pt	$4.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Donald J. Trump Politics	2.0%	0.3pt	$4.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Bernie Sanders Politics	0.3%	0.2pt	$4.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Raphael Warnock Politics	0.8%	0.1pt	$4.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — J.D. Vance Politics	21.0%	2.0pt	$4.0M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Politics	12.5%	1.0pt	$3.9M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Jon Ossoff Politics	10.5%	1.0pt	$3.9M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — John Fetterman Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$3.9M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Chris Murphy Politics	0.7%	0.1pt	$3.9M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Gavin Newsom Politics	8.5%	0.1pt	$3.6M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? — Before January 20, 2029 General	18.0%	4.0pt	$3.5M	2029-01-20
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Elissa Slotkin Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$3.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Cory Booker Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$3.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Donald J. Trump Politics	3.0%	0.2pt	$3.4M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Ruben Gallego Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$3.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Thomas Massie Politics	1.2%	0.2pt	$3.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Jamie Dimon Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$3.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Marjorie Taylor Greene Politics	0.8%	0.1pt	$3.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Ron DeSantis Politics	4.8%	0.1pt	$2.9M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Roy Cooper Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$2.9M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? — Before January 21, 2029 General	23.5%	3.0pt	$2.8M	2029-01-21
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Donald J. Trump Jr. Politics	3.5%	0.2pt	$2.8M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Hillary Clinton Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$2.7M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Kamala Harris Politics	4.3%	0.3pt	$2.6M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Tucker Carlson Politics	2.3%	0.4pt	$2.6M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Miami General	3.5%	1.0pt	$2.4M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Donald J. Trump Jr. Politics	1.0%	0.1pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Wes Moore Politics	1.4%	0.2pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Pete Buttigieg Politics	3.1%	0.5pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Gretchen Whitmer Politics	1.0%	0.2pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — J.B. Pritzker Politics	1.1%	0.2pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Ron DeSantis Politics	3.5%	0.1pt	$2.3M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Nikki Haley Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$2.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Amy Klobuchar Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$2.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Mark Kelly Politics	3.5%	0.2pt	$2.1M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Ivanka Trump Politics	1.1%	0.2pt	$2.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Andy Beshear Politics	3.1%	0.2pt	$1.9M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Josh Shapiro Politics	2.7%	0.2pt	$1.9M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Stephen A. Smith Politics	0.2%	0.2pt	$1.8M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Tulsi Gabbard Politics	0.7%	0.3pt	$1.8M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? — Paramount General	82.5%	1.0pt	$1.8M	2027-07-01
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Vivek Ramaswamy Politics	0.3%	0.2pt	$1.7M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Rahm Emanuel Politics	1.5%	1.0pt	$1.7M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Golden State General	1.5%	1.0pt	$1.7M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Los Angeles L General	2.5%	1.0pt	$1.6M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? — Netflix General	2.5%	1.0pt	$1.5M	2027-07-01
Kalshi	Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? — Before 2027 General	4.2%	0.2pt	$1.5M	2027-01-01
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Tulsi Gabbard Politics	0.3%	0.2pt	$1.5M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Minnesota General	3.5%	1.0pt	$1.5M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Ted Cruz Politics	1.4%	0.2pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Elon Musk Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Josh Hawley Politics	0.8%	0.1pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture — The Odyssey Culture	58.5%	1.0pt	$1.4M	2027-12-31
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Brian Kemp Politics	0.7%	0.1pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Vivek Ramaswamy Politics	0.4%	0.2pt	$1.4M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Eric Trump Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$1.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Greg Abbott Politics	0.7%	0.1pt	$1.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Mike Pence Politics	0.7%	0.2pt	$1.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Rand Paul Politics	0.5%	0.2pt	$1.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Politics	0.4%	0.1pt	$1.3M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Orlando General	1.5%	1.0pt	$1.3M	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Byron Donalds Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$1.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Glenn Youngkin Politics	0.4%	0.1pt	$1.2M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Sarah Huckabee Sanders Politics	0.6%	0.2pt	$1.2M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Jamie Dimon Politics	0.5%	0.1pt	$1.1M	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Nicki Minaj Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$1.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Pete Hegseth Politics	0.7%	0.1pt	$1.1M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Glenn Youngkin Politics	1.0%	0.2pt	$1.0M	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — New York General	8.5%	1.0pt	$955K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? — None before July 2027 General	14.0%	2.0pt	$924K	2027-07-01
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Erika Kirk Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$911K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Cleveland General	2.5%	1.0pt	$877K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Steve Bannon Politics	0.4%	0.1pt	$877K	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics	3.8%	0.3pt	$874K	2026-10-04
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Matt Gaetz Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$856K	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Economics	1.4%	0.1pt	$841K	2026-09-16
Kalshi	How much will the US acquire Greenland for? — $0 / No Acquisition General	83.5%	3.0pt	$811K	2029-01-22
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Katie Britt Politics	0.3%	0.2pt	$802K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Toronto General	2.5%	1.0pt	$796K	2029-07-30
Polymarket	Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner General	0.1%	—	$741K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Elise Stefanik Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$696K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? — Before his term ends General	14.5%	1.0pt	$645K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — San Antonio General	23.5%	1.0pt	$640K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028? — Before 2028 General	6.0%	2.0pt	$612K	2028-01-01
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Indiana General	1.5%	1.0pt	$605K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? — During Trump's term General	24.0%	2.0pt	$587K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — Scott Jennings General	23.5%	1.0pt	$582K	2029-01-21
Kalshi	Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Champion — Philadelphia General	22.5%	1.0pt	$576K	2029-06-29
Polymarket	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28? General	57.5%	1.0pt	$569K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	2026: Trump's dream year? — Yes General	5.1%	0.1pt	$563K	2027-12-31
Polymarket	Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A General	0.1%	—	$551K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — Tom Cotton Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$531K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Will President Trump be impeached during his term? — Before Jan 20, 2029 Politics	66.0%	2.0pt	$519K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? — Before 2027 General	5.1%	0.2pt	$502K	2027-01-01
Polymarket	Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$491K	2026-06-01
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Oklahoma City General	22.5%	1.0pt	$487K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Michigan General	3.0%	0.1pt	$482K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Callum Turner General	28.5%	1.0pt	$448K	2030-01-01
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Denver General	3.5%	1.0pt	$434K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Republicans win General	8.8%	0.1pt	$430K	2027-11-03
Kalshi	What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? — Greenland General	1.7%	0.5pt	$421K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Boston General	4.5%	1.0pt	$419K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation — Indiana General	41.5%	3.0pt	$417K	2028-09-07
Polymarket	Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Sports	0.1%	0.1pt	$411K	2027-05-30
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Greg Abbott Politics	0.2%	0.2pt	$401K	2029-11-07
Kalshi	2028 Republican presidential nominee — John Thune Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$399K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Nikki Haley Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$393K	2029-11-07
Polymarket	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? General	0.1%	—	$393K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? — Venezuela General	2.8%	0.3pt	$385K	2029-01-20
Polymarket	US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Sports	73.5%	1.0pt	$382K	2026-09-03
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Duke General	12.5%	1.0pt	$377K	2027-04-27
Polymarket	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-08-28? General	79.5%	1.0pt	$362K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture — Dune: Part Three Culture	14.5%	1.0pt	$356K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	Champions League Winner — Barcelona Sports	19.0%	2.0pt	$354K	2027-06-19
Polymarket	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics	2.4%	0.1pt	$346K	2026-10-04
Polymarket	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Geopolitics	1.3%	0.1pt	$345K	2026-09-01
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion — Chelsea Sports	15.5%	1.0pt	$344K	2027-06-13
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion — Arsenal Sports	52.5%	1.0pt	$344K	2027-06-13
Kalshi	Will Trump resign during his term? — Before his term ends General	19.0%	2.0pt	$339K	2029-01-21
Polymarket	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Economics	68.5%	1.0pt	$335K	2026-09-16
Kalshi	Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? — Before 2027 General	17.5%	1.0pt	$333K	2027-01-01
Kalshi	Champions League Winner — Real Madrid Sports	17.0%	2.0pt	$319K	2027-06-19
Polymarket	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Geopolitics	13.5%	1.0pt	$313K	2027-01-01
Kalshi	Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term? — Before Jan 1, 2029 General	6.5%	0.6pt	$302K	2029-01-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Florida General	13.5%	1.0pt	$301K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) — Republican party Politics	41.5%	1.0pt	$301K	2029-11-07
Kalshi	Will Iran become a democracy in 2026? — Yes General	1.8%	0.4pt	$299K	2027-03-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — St. John's General	2.6%	0.9pt	$290K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion — Manchester City Sports	19.5%	1.0pt	$281K	2027-06-13
Kalshi	2028 Republican VP nominee — Marco Rubio Politics	27.5%	1.0pt	$281K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — North Carolina General	4.2%	0.1pt	$279K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Politics	8.2%	0.1pt	$276K	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-08-28? General	0.1%	—	$275K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — Alina Habba General	1.7%	0.1pt	$274K	2029-01-21
Kalshi	Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Jacob Elordi General	10.5%	1.0pt	$266K	2030-01-01
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion — Manchester United Sports	5.5%	1.0pt	$264K	2027-06-13
Kalshi	English Premier League Champion — Tottenham Sports	1.5%	1.0pt	$264K	2027-06-13
Kalshi	Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation — A new location in Illinois General	52.5%	3.0pt	$263K	2028-09-07
Kalshi	Recession in 2027? — Yes Economics	27.5%	1.0pt	$260K	2028-01-31
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Texas Tech General	5.7%	0.1pt	$254K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	2026: Trump's bad year? — Yes General	7.8%	2.1pt	$251K	2027-12-31
Polymarket	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? General	0.4%	0.1pt	$250K	2026-09-01
Polymarket	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Economics	0.4%	0.1pt	$247K	2026-09-16
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture — The Black Ball Culture	8.5%	1.0pt	$247K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) — Democratic party Politics	58.0%	2.0pt	$245K	2029-11-07
Polymarket	US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov Sports	54.5%	1.0pt	$239K	2026-09-03
Polymarket	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-28? General	57.5%	1.0pt	$239K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Aaron Taylor-Johnson General	4.5%	1.0pt	$237K	2030-01-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Arkansas General	3.3%	0.2pt	$237K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture — Project Hail Mary Culture	2.5%	1.0pt	$236K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? — Cuba General	3.5%	1.0pt	$236K	2029-01-20
Polymarket	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? General	0.3%	0.3pt	$234K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — Natalie Harp General	3.5%	1.0pt	$231K	2029-01-21
Polymarket	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Politics	75.5%	1.0pt	$230K	2026-09-30
Polymarket	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? General	0.1%	0.1pt	$229K	2026-08-28
Polymarket	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$229K	2026-10-04
Kalshi	Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — Anna Kelly General	19.0%	2.0pt	$229K	2029-01-21
Kalshi	Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? — Before Jan 20, 2029 General	46.0%	6.0pt	$217K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	2030 FIFA World Cup Champion — Spain Sports	12.3%	0.1pt	$216K	2031-01-15
Polymarket	US Open, Qualification WTA: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Pridankina Sports	72.0%	2.0pt	$216K	2026-09-03
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Detroit General	2.5%	1.0pt	$214K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Champion — Miami General	7.5%	1.0pt	$213K	2029-06-29
Kalshi	AK-AL primary: Who will advance? — John Brendan Williams General	92.5%	1.0pt	$211K	2028-05-18
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee — Gretchen Whitmer Politics	9.6%	0.1pt	$208K	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 General	37.5%	1.0pt	$207K	2026-08-29
Polymarket	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? General	4.3%	0.9pt	$205K	2026-09-01
Kalshi	What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? — Puerto Rico General	1.7%	0.3pt	$201K	2029-01-20
Polymarket	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 28? Crypto	93.7%	1.8pt	$200K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? — Before Jan 1, 2027 General	4.9%	2.3pt	$200K	2027-01-01
Polymarket	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 28? Crypto	1.9%	0.5pt	$199K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	2028 Republican VP nominee — J.D. Vance Politics	5.5%	0.7pt	$198K	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics	57.5%	1.0pt	$196K	2026-10-04
Kalshi	What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? — Canada General	1.3%	0.4pt	$195K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	How much will the US acquire Greenland for? — $600 billion to $899 billion General	3.2%	2.4pt	$194K	2029-01-22
Polymarket	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Economics	30.5%	1.0pt	$194K	2026-09-16
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture — Wild Horse Nine Culture	6.0%	2.0pt	$193K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Kentucky General	2.6%	0.1pt	$189K	2027-04-27
Polymarket	Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-08-28? General	7.5%	1.0pt	$186K	2026-08-28
Polymarket	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 28? Crypto	99.8%	0.2pt	$185K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Champion — New York General	21.5%	1.0pt	$184K	2029-06-29
Polymarket	Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-28? General	65.5%	1.0pt	$181K	2026-08-28
Kalshi	Maine-Texas Senate Combo — Ken Paxton and Susan Collins Politics	27.5%	1.0pt	$180K	2027-11-03
Polymarket	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$180K	2026-10-04
Polymarket	Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5) General	44.5%	1.0pt	$178K	2026-08-28
Polymarket	Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics	0.1%	0.1pt	$178K	2026-10-04
Kalshi	Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — Anthropic Tech	92.0%	2.0pt	$178K	2040-01-01
Kalshi	Will there be a Trump economic boom? — Above 5% General	20.8%	7.3pt	$177K	2029-01-26
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — LSU General	1.7%	0.1pt	$175K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Oscar Winner: Best Picture — Digger Culture	5.5%	1.0pt	$175K	2027-12-31
Kalshi	Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency? — Before 2029 General	28.5%	1.0pt	$173K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — OpenAI Tech	10.0%	2.0pt	$170K	2040-01-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Syracuse General	0.3%	0.2pt	$169K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — BYU General	0.7%	0.4pt	$167K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Texas General	5.1%	0.1pt	$165K	2027-04-27
Polymarket	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics	0.3%	0.1pt	$164K	2026-10-04
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Gonzaga General	2.7%	0.2pt	$162K	2027-04-27
Polymarket	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? Crypto	0.1%	0.1pt	$161K	2026-09-01
Kalshi	Liga MX Clausura Champion — Cruz Azul General	15.5%	5.0pt	$160K	2027-06-16
Kalshi	Will Trump abolish the Department of Education? — Before Jan 20, 2029 General	15.0%	4.0pt	$160K	2029-01-20
Polymarket	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Politics	28.5%	1.0pt	$157K	2026-12-31
Kalshi	Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation — Do not relocate or announce a relocation General	5.0%	4.0pt	$156K	2028-09-07
Polymarket	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics	0.1%	—	$155K	2026-10-04
Kalshi	Will the US acquire any new territory? — Before Jan 2027 General	4.5%	2.1pt	$153K	2027-01-01
Kalshi	Which agencies will Trump eliminate? — USAID General	24.5%	3.0pt	$152K	2029-01-20
Kalshi	Texas Senate: Exact outcome — Paxton defeats Talarico Politics	51.5%	1.0pt	$152K	2028-01-03
Kalshi	Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — Margo Martin General	11.0%	2.0pt	$152K	2029-01-21
Kalshi	2027 Pro Basketball Champion — Houston General	1.5%	1.0pt	$151K	2029-07-30
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee — Gavin Newsom Politics	4.0%	0.1pt	$149K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? — Before Oct 1, 2026 General	4.0%	2.0pt	$145K	2026-10-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Illinois General	7.2%	0.2pt	$144K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals Winner — Florida Panthers General	11.0%	2.0pt	$143K	2029-06-30
Kalshi	2028 Republican VP nominee — Erika Kirk Politics	2.5%	0.8pt	$142K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Will the US take control of any part of Canada? — Before 2029 General	8.5%	3.0pt	$142K	2029-01-21
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee — Jon Ossoff Politics	5.3%	0.3pt	$142K	2028-11-07
Kalshi	Champions League Winner — Arsenal Sports	15.0%	2.0pt	$141K	2027-06-19
Kalshi	2028 Democratic VP nominee — James Talarico Politics	3.0%	2.0pt	$141K	2028-11-07
Polymarket	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? General	0.1%	—	$141K	2026-08-24
Polymarket	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Geopolitics	24.5%	1.0pt	$141K	2026-10-01
Polymarket	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? General	14.5%	1.0pt	$139K	2027-01-01
Kalshi	Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion — Clemson General	0.1%	0.1pt	$139K	2027-04-27
Kalshi	2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 0 to 2% General	2.1%	0.2pt	$138K	2027-11-03
Polymarket	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? General	0.1%	—	$137K	2026-09-01
Polymarket	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? Crypto	26.5%	0.1pt	$137K	2026-09-01
Polymarket	Bitcoin Up or Down on August 28? Crypto	13.5%	1.0pt	$136K	2026-08-28

Showing 250 of 500 matching · 500 markets loaded. Probability is the mid of the quoted spread, not the last traded price — on a thin market a last trade can be days stale while the book is current.