Sentiment
What the crowd changed its mind about.
A prediction market price is a probability estimate with money behind it, which makes it the most legible read on public expectation available, continuous where a poll is occasional, and costly to get wrong where commentary is free. The useful signal is movement rather than level: that something sits at 48% is almost no information, that the crowd revised it twenty points today is a story.
Archive spans 18 hours. Movement is shown over that span rather than the full 24 hours: a window longer than the history would report less time and label it as more. Sports fixtures are excluded: a match swings forty points because it is being played, not because anyone revised an opinion.
What moved
- +15.0ppEconomicsWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?31% → 46%
- −15.0ppEconomicsWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?69% → 54%
- −8.5ppGeneralKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?37% → 28%
- +6.0ppGeneralLiga MX Clausura Champion: Cruz Azul14% → 21%
- −6.0ppEconomicsFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?53% → 47%
- −4.5ppPoliticsWill Trump buy at least part of Greenland?: Before January 20, 202924% → 20%
- −3.0ppTechWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?: OpenAI10% → 7%
- +2.5ppGeneralWill Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?58% → 60%
- −2.5ppGeopoliticsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?69% → 66%
- +2.0ppGeopoliticsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?10% → 12%
- +2.0ppGeneralAK-AL primary: Who will advance?: John Brendan Williams91% → 93%
- +2.0ppPoliticsWho will be Trump's next Press Secretary?: Margo Martin11% → 13%
- +1.9ppPoliticsWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?36% → 38%
- +1.5ppGeneralWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?: Before January 21, 202924% → 25%
- −1.5ppGeneralLindsay Clancy convicted of murder?37% → 35%
- −1.5ppGeneralWill the US take control of any part of Canada?: Before 20299% → 8%
- −1.3ppPoliticsWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?18% → 16%
- −1.0ppPoliticsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?18% → 17%
- +1.0ppPolitics2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?: Marco Rubio12% → 13%
- −1.0ppGeopoliticsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?25% → 24%
- −1.0ppGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?33% → 32%
- −1.0ppGeneralWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?: Paramount83% → 82%
- +1.0ppCultureOscar Winner: Best Picture: The Odyssey56% → 57%
- +1.0ppPoliticsWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?: Before his term ends14% → 15%
Genuinely undecided
Near even money with real depth resting on both sides. A contract at 0.50 with an empty book is not disagreement, it is absence, these have money committed on both sides of the question.
- 52%PoliticsTexas Senate: Exact outcome: Paxton defeats Talaricodepth 7,276 / 3,348
- 48%PoliticsWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?depth 93,493 / 175,068
- 54%EconomicsWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?depth 708,055 / 193,869
- 47%EconomicsFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?depth 5,632 / 26,150
- 47%PoliticsWill Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?: Before Jan 20, 2029depth 6,954 / 5,042
- 46%EconomicsWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?depth 242,347 / 596,746
- 44%Politics2028 Republican presidential nominee: J.D. Vancedepth 146,616 / 110,085
- 57%PoliticsWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?depth 416,846 / 191,916
- 57%CultureOscar Winner: Best Picture: The Odysseydepth 5,881 / 27,909
- 58%Politics2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party): Democratic partydepth 47,251 / 32,009
- 42%Politics2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party): Republican partydepth 46,913 / 29,554
- 60%TechWill Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?depth 137,241 / 16,582
Built from a price archive recorded every five minutes, because neither venue publishes historic prices or depth: a series that was not captured as it happened cannot be bought afterwards at any price. Method →