Archive spans 1101 hours. Movement is measured over 24 hours. Sports fixtures are excluded: a match swings forty points because it is being played, not because anyone revised an opinion.
General6 mkts
−49.5pp
net drift · 65pp total movement
Politics5 mkts
+12.9pp
net drift · 50pp total movement
Geopolitics3 mkts
+22.5pp
net drift · 49pp total movement
Culture3 mkts
+5.0pp
net drift · 31pp total movement
What moved
+27.5ppGeopoliticsWill Ukraine target Moscow on October 16, 2026?36% → 63%
−21.5ppGeneralNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?65% → 44%
−13.0ppCultureNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond: Nicholas Hoult20% → 7%
−13.0ppGeopoliticsMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?47% → 34%
+12.5ppPoliticsWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?23% → 36%
−11.5ppEconomicsWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?62% → 51%
+11.0ppCultureWho will headline Coachella 2027?: Fred again..24% → 35%
+10.9ppPoliticsWill Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?59% → 70%
−10.6ppGeneralNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?80% → 70%
−10.6ppEconomicsWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?40% → 29%
−10.5ppPoliticsWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?49% → 39%
−10.5ppCommoditiesWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?52% → 42%
−9.8ppGeneralPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?34% → 24%
−9.0ppCryptoWill Ethereum reach $2,800 in October?42% → 33%
+8.5ppCryptoWill Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?52% → 61%
−8.2ppGeneralWill the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire?9% → 0%
+8.0ppPoliticsAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?18% → 26%
−8.0ppPoliticsWill Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?47% → 39%
+8.0ppGeopoliticsWill Ukraine target Moscow on October 17, 2026?53% → 61%
+7.7ppCompaniesWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?14% → 22%
+7.5ppGeneralBallon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?51% → 59%
−7.5ppCompaniesWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?84% → 76%
+7.0ppCultureWho will headline Coachella 2027?: BTS10% → 17%
−7.0ppGeneralPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?54% → 47%
Genuinely undecided
Near even money with real depth resting on both sides. A contract at 0.50 with an empty book is not disagreement, it is absence, these have money committed on both sides of the question.
50%GeneralWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?depth 3,236 / 15,998
50%PoliticsWill Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?depth 4,125 / 37,602
50%PoliticsWill Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?depth 15,626 / 5,192
50%PoliticsWill Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?depth 1,283 / 7,982
50%TechWill Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?depth 5,672 / 2,411
51%EconomicsWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?depth 4,875 / 2,153
50%PoliticsWho will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?: Ruben Gallegodepth 1,044 / 1,481
49%PoliticsNevada Governor winner?: Joe Lombardodepth 13,607 / 15,322
49%Politics2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate?: Democratic Sweepdepth 1,320 / 1,369
49%GeneralUS test scores in Reading in 2026?: Significant decreasedepth 633 / 1,608
Source
Built from a price archive recorded every five minutes, because neither venue publishes historic prices or depth: a series that was not captured as it happened cannot be bought afterwards at any price. Method →