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Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
That was the last of today's free scorecards. Re-opening this wallet stays free.
Scored on 8 of 10 settled positions. 2 were bought outside 0.02–0.98, where the answer was already known. Both still count towards the realised money below, because the money was real. Neither counts as a forecast.
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
The breakdown by confidence band is on Trader. The single calibration figure above tells you how far off the wallet was on average; this tells you where, which is the part you can act on.
A trader who is well calibrated at even money and badly over-confident above 0.8 has an ordinary average and a specific, fixable problem.
What each plan includes →52% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
Every settled position, rebuilt from fills. Realised −$503 across 10 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid. Exits count at the prices they printed; only what was still held at the close settles at 1 or 0.
The 10 settled positions behind those totals are itemised on Trader, each with the price paid, the outcome and what it made or lost.
The totals above are the whole record summed. The itemisation is what shows you which trades produced them.
What each plan includes →Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →