Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1165

across 204 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+53%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

3.6pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

54%

111 of 204 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	45	3%	0%	−3pp
10–25%	11	19%	18%	−0pp
25–40%	7	33%	43%	+10pp
40–60%	26	49%	50%	+1pp
60–75%	28	67%	54%	−13pp
75–90%	32	82%	78%	−4pp
90–100%	55	97%	96%	−0pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$10.8K

53 open positions

Largest position

16%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

$696

against $10.8K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$3.2K across 204 positions, with $4 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? — No	0.0553	lost	90	−$5
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? — No	0.9663	won	6	$0
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — No	0.8449	won	40	$6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? — Yes	0.5375	won	1,320	$611
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August? — Yes	0.7126	won	326	$94
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August? — Yes	0.8480	won	47	$7
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? — No	0.3666	lost	5,453	−$2.0K
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? — No	0.2592	lost	634	−$164
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? — Yes	0.6178	won	915	$350
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? — No	0.7673	lost	2,196	−$1.7K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? — Yes	0.7000	won	5	$2
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? — No	0.0159	lost	2,428	−$39
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? — Yes	0.0257	lost	12,180	−$314
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? — No	0.9015	won	54	$5
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? — No	0.7476	won	2,395	$605
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? — Yes	0.9716	won	515	$15
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? — No	0.9215	won	1,786	$140
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? — Yes	0.5453	lost	2,494	−$1.4K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? — No	0.7905	won	6,632	$1.4K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? — No	0.6583	won	8,375	$2.9K
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? — No	0.5780	won	289	$122
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? — Yes	0.2120	lost	176	−$37
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? — Yes	0.4675	lost	107	−$50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — Yes	0.0080	lost	2,513	−$20
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? — No	0.0336	lost	18,422	−$619
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? — No	0.7916	won	1,106	$231
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? — Yes	0.0500	lost	285	−$14
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? — Yes	0.0319	lost	706	−$22
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? — Yes	0.8984	won	726	$74
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15? — No	0.5596	lost	434	−$243
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? — No	0.8957	won	1,304	$136
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? — Yes	0.0220	lost	505	−$11
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? — No	0.5474	lost	4,099	−$2.2K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? — Yes	0.4638	won	2,143	$1.1K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? — Yes	0.0140	lost	484	−$7
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? — No	0.9480	won	747	$39
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? — Yes	0.0100	lost	948	−$9
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? — No	0.9189	won	532	$43
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? — No	0.9474	won	1,276	$67
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? — Yes	0.0100	lost	2,127	−$21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? — Yes	0.0271	lost	2,219	−$60
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? — No	0.9316	won	684	$47
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? — No	0.0100	lost	2,917	−$29
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? — No	0.9900	won	677	$7
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? — Yes	0.9215	won	1,109	$87
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? — Yes	0.0291	lost	2,197	−$64
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? — No	0.7537	won	6,019	$1.5K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? — Yes	0.0202	lost	1,735	−$35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? — No	0.8959	won	263	$27
Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No	0.7977	lost	6	−$5
Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.5000	lost	11	−$5
Will Lionel Messi score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.9200	won	5	$0
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.9923	won	30	$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July? — No	0.9950	won	94	$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? — Yes	0.0880	lost	2,372	−$209
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? — No	0.8392	won	1,591	$256
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? — Yes	0.0205	lost	37,617	−$772
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? — Yes	0.1192	lost	82	−$10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? — No	0.9185	won	218	$18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? — No	0.6426	lost	291	−$187

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →