Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–25% | 1 | 13% | 0% | −13pp |
| 25–40% | 1 | 36% | 0% | −36pp |
| 40–60% | 7 | 50% | 29% | −22pp |
| 60–75% | 2 | 70% | 100% | +30pp |
| 75–90% | 7 | 84% | 43% | −41pp |
| 90–100% | 37 | 97% | 95% | −3pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$103.2K across 55 positions, with $1.0K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? — No | 0.8700 | lost | 10,648 | −$9.3K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — No | 0.9688 | won | 5,875 | $183 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 399 | $2 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? — Yes | 0.9600 | won | 12,057 | $482 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? — No | 0.9951 | won | 4,037 | $20 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? — No | 0.9961 | won | 71,058 | $274 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.9840 | won | 14,463 | $231 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? — Yes | 0.8100 | won | 65 | $12 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? — Yes | 0.9840 | won | 10,382 | $166 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? — No | 0.9572 | lost | 7,358 | −$7.0K |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? — Yes | 0.9555 | lost | 9,302 | −$8.9K |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? — No | 0.8300 | lost | 699 | −$580 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No | 0.9784 | won | 130,484 | $2.8K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? — Yes | 0.9978 | won | 14,330 | $31 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? — Yes | 0.9697 | won | 65,054 | $2.0K |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 24? — No | 0.9100 | won | 1,211 | $109 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? — Yes | 0.9954 | won | 40,846 | $186 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — No | 0.8800 | won | 5,167 | $620 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? — Yes | 0.9791 | won | 25,526 | $532 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 2,000 | $4 |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9835 | won | 108,395 | $1.8K |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9770 | won | 134,049 | $3.1K |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9640 | won | 85,690 | $3.1K |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18? — No | 0.9928 | won | 8,010 | $58 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? — No | 0.9860 | won | 2,501 | $35 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? — No | 0.9730 | won | 30,388 | $821 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik — Taylor Fritz | 0.6750 | won | 48,752 | $15.8K |
| Wimbledon WTA: Madison Keys vs Linda Noskova — Madison Keys | 0.5664 | lost | 65,429 | −$37.1K |
| Wimbledon WTA: Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens — Marie Bouzkova | 0.4700 | lost | 13,002 | −$6.1K |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Felix Auger-Aliassime | 0.9772 | won | 2,415 | $55 |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 — Under | 0.7766 | lost | 41,076 | −$31.9K |
| Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 — Over | 0.5200 | lost | 13,773 | −$7.2K |
| Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance — Morocco | 0.7200 | won | 20,000 | $5.6K |
| Will Austria win on 2026-07-02? — No | 0.9250 | won | 76,407 | $5.7K |
| Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5200 | won | 33,720 | $16.2K |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? — No | 0.9400 | won | 1,189 | $71 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9434 | won | 70,326 | $4.0K |
| Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5000 | won | 1,431 | $715 |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? — No | 0.9580 | won | 79 | $3 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? — Yes | 0.7900 | lost | 36,428 | −$28.8K |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) — Spain | 0.5400 | lost | 100,000 | −$54.0K |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? — No | 0.9500 | won | 15,686 | $784 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9462 | won | 48,775 | $2.6K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.8918 | won | 215,813 | $23.3K |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? — Yes | 0.3600 | lost | 1,975 | −$711 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? — Yes | 0.9120 | won | 58,285 | $5.1K |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 18? — No | 0.9795 | won | 24,815 | $509 |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? — Yes | 0.1310 | lost | 15,367 | −$2.0K |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? — Yes | 0.4022 | lost | 22,242 | −$8.9K |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? — No | 0.9818 | won | 30,108 | $549 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? — No | 0.9890 | won | 7,278 | $80 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? — No | 0.9876 | won | 93,989 | $1.2K |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? — No | 0.9960 | won | 43,651 | $175 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? — No | 0.9950 | won | 39,615 | $198 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? — No | 0.9982 | won | 9,386 | $17 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →