Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 24 | 5% | 0% | −5pp |
| 10–25% | 28 | 16% | 11% | −5pp |
| 25–40% | 13 | 30% | 23% | −7pp |
| 40–60% | 6 | 52% | 33% | −19pp |
| 60–75% | 9 | 68% | 78% | +10pp |
| 75–90% | 21 | 83% | 90% | +8pp |
| 90–100% | 157 | 98% | 99% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
71% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $556.2K across 258 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 5,424 | $5 |
| Will Khamzat Chimaev fight Sean Strickland next? — Yes | 0.9989 | won | 5,251 | $6 |
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? — Yes | 0.9968 | won | 13,000 | $41 |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 104 | $0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — Yes | 0.7729 | won | 3,495 | $794 |
| Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? — No | 0.9979 | won | 7,574 | $16 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Kentucky in 2026? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 3,083 | $6 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Ohio in 2026? — Yes | 0.9969 | won | 1,617 | $5 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes | 0.8859 | won | 259,405 | $29.6K |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — No | 0.6120 | lost | 300 | −$184 |
| Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? — Yes | 0.9865 | won | 4,036 | $55 |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? — Yes | 0.9407 | won | 168,888 | $10.0K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? — Yes | 0.1315 | lost | 24,526 | −$3.2K |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? — Yes | 0.2899 | lost | 22,513 | −$6.5K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.1326 | lost | 8,709 | −$1.2K |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? — No | 0.7400 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — Yes | 0.0239 | lost | 240,351 | −$5.8K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — No | 0.9820 | won | 20 | $0 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? — Yes | 0.0612 | lost | 6,650 | −$407 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? — Yes | 0.0095 | lost | 15,818 | −$151 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? — Yes | 0.0129 | lost | 6,885 | −$89 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? — Yes | 0.0450 | lost | 3,719 | −$167 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? — Yes | 0.0957 | lost | 22,483 | −$2.2K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? — Yes | 0.1108 | lost | 15,435 | −$1.7K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? — Yes | 0.2909 | lost | 35,320 | −$10.3K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.1933 | lost | 38,906 | −$7.5K |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31? — Yes | 0.0440 | lost | 2,432 | −$107 |
| Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 8,090 | $8 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? — Yes | 0.2533 | won | 95,201 | $71.1K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — Yes | 0.0467 | lost | 731,092 | −$34.2K |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? — No | 0.9899 | won | 86,891 | $876 |
| Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? — Yes | 0.9870 | won | 3,747 | $49 |
| Iran closes its airspace by July 31? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 12,186 | $12 |
| Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? — No | 0.9621 | won | 12,249 | $465 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 13,495 | $13 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 36,473 | $73 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 70,000 | $211 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? — No | 0.1584 | lost | 13,181 | −$2.1K |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — Yes | 0.1516 | lost | 79,595 | −$12.1K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 14,161 | $14 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 887 | $4 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — Yes | 0.1603 | lost | 232,662 | −$37.3K |
| Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? — Yes | 0.1585 | lost | 1,308 | −$207 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? — Yes | 0.0214 | lost | 4,358 | −$93 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? — Yes | 0.3022 | lost | 763 | −$230 |
| Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? — Yes | 0.2600 | lost | 5 | −$1 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? — No | 0.9920 | won | 1,286 | $10 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? — Yes | 0.1756 | lost | 607 | −$107 |
| Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? — Yes | 0.5900 | lost | 3 | −$2 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 7,777 | $8 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? — No | 0.9990 | won | 11,111 | $11 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 204,444 | $204 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? — No | 0.9891 | won | 27,772 | $303 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? — No | 0.9950 | won | 1,542 | $8 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 35,132 | $105 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9954 | won | 316,500 | $1.5K |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? — Yes | 0.1300 | lost | 88,099 | −$11.5K |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.5371 | lost | 649 | −$349 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? — No | 0.8900 | won | 2,000 | $220 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No | 0.9802 | won | 170,575 | $3.4K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →