Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2 | 2% | 0% | −2pp |
| 10–25% | 4 | 22% | 0% | −22pp |
| 25–40% | 6 | 31% | 17% | −15pp |
| 40–60% | 23 | 50% | 57% | +7pp |
| 60–75% | 8 | 65% | 38% | −28pp |
| 75–90% | 15 | 84% | 73% | −11pp |
| 90–100% | 91 | 98% | 93% | −4pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$16.7K across 149 positions, with $145 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? — No | 0.9890 | won | 300 | $3 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — Yes | 0.9748 | won | 3,433 | $87 |
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — Yes | 0.0339 | lost | 9,418 | −$319 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 25,701 | $51 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9756 | won | 12,500 | $305 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? — No | 0.4900 | lost | 1,910 | −$936 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? — No | 0.9850 | lost | 6,090 | −$6.0K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August? — No | 0.9940 | lost | 10,750 | −$10.7K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? — No | 0.9950 | lost | 700 | −$696 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? — No | 0.9840 | won | 3,992 | $64 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? — No | 0.9720 | won | 17 | $0 |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — No | 0.9910 | won | 18,291 | $165 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? — No | 0.8900 | won | 30 | $3 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — No | 0.9745 | won | 16,873 | $431 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? — No | 0.9600 | won | 2,240 | $90 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? — No | 0.9600 | won | 1,003 | $40 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? — No | 0.9900 | won | 515 | $5 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? — No | 0.9710 | won | 796 | $23 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July? — No | 0.9910 | won | 845 | $8 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July? — No | 0.9795 | won | 1,295 | $27 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July? — No | 0.9830 | won | 480 | $8 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July? — No | 0.9750 | won | 1,430 | $36 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July? — No | 0.9890 | won | 877 | $10 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July? — No | 0.9710 | won | 925 | $27 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July? — No | 0.9887 | won | 543 | $6 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July? — No | 0.9900 | won | 1,727 | $17 |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9858 | won | 50,000 | $710 |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9980 | won | 36,400 | $73 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9723 | won | 21,000 | $582 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9666 | won | 50,431 | $1.7K |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9889 | won | 8,047 | $89 |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9920 | won | 13 | $0 |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9870 | won | 7,127 | $93 |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9840 | won | 7,500 | $120 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No | 0.9960 | won | 5,041 | $20 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? — No | 0.9830 | won | 333 | $6 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? — No | 0.9780 | won | 11,146 | $245 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No | 0.9400 | won | 28,000 | $1.7K |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? — No | 0.8279 | won | 5,642 | $971 |
| US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? — No | 0.7600 | lost | 1,010 | −$768 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? — No | 0.5510 | lost | 5,002 | −$2.8K |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? — No | 0.8500 | lost | 223 | −$190 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — No | 0.6200 | lost | 85 | −$53 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.7406 | lost | 3,201 | −$2.4K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.9700 | won | 5,045 | $151 |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? — Yes | 0.7400 | won | 1,118 | $291 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? — Yes | 0.9852 | won | 391 | $6 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? — No | 0.9940 | won | 334 | $2 |
| Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — No | 0.9900 | won | 1,728 | $17 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? — No | 0.9910 | won | 29,200 | $263 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? — No | 0.9804 | won | 7,131 | $140 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? — No | 0.7600 | won | 14,000 | $3.4K |
| Trump out as President by April 30? — No | 0.9878 | won | 4,515 | $55 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? — No | 0.9575 | won | 16,880 | $718 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? — No | 0.8700 | won | 14 | $2 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? — No | 0.9990 | won | 4 | $0 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? — No | 0.9950 | won | 7,459 | $37 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? — No | 0.9980 | won | 7,043 | $14 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? — No | 0.9309 | won | 4,803 | $332 |
| Weed rescheduled by March 31? — No | 0.9797 | won | 1,221 | $25 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →