04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.0245
across 368 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+16%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
1.4pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
97%
357 of 368 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–60% | 2 | 52% | 0% | −52pp |
| 60–75% | 3 | 70% | 67% | −3pp |
| 75–90% | 21 | 84% | 90% | +6pp |
| 90–100% | 342 | 97% | 98% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$452.3K
18 open positions
Largest position
26%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
3
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
$24.6K
against $452.3K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $155.4K across 368 positions, with $8 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 276,300 | $276 |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? — No | 0.7600 | won | 7,786 | $1.9K |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes | 0.9954 | won | 24,027 | $110 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? — No | 0.9970 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? — No | 0.9940 | won | 3,067 | $18 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? — No | 0.9414 | won | 46,984 | $2.8K |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — No | 0.9865 | won | 49,718 | $673 |
| Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — Yes | 0.9808 | won | 8,983 | $172 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — No | 0.9767 | won | 116,177 | $2.7K |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? — No | 0.9804 | won | 21,055 | $413 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? — No | 0.9841 | won | 66,640 | $1.1K |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? — Yes | 0.9928 | won | 6,137 | $44 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — Yes | 0.9966 | won | 12,516 | $43 |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — No | 0.9959 | won | 692 | $3 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.9827 | won | 86,193 | $1.5K |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.9923 | won | 33,874 | $261 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? — No | 0.9832 | won | 56,470 | $947 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? — No | 0.9914 | won | 347 | $3 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No | 0.9619 | won | 57,961 | $2.2K |
| Will Cristiano Ronaldo record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9980 | won | 271 | $1 |
| World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo — Messi | 0.9825 | won | 599 | $10 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No | 0.9779 | won | 216,887 | $4.8K |
| Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? — No | 0.9612 | won | 3,040 | $118 |
| Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7? — No | 0.9860 | won | 2,342 | $33 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? — No | 0.9970 | won | 20,806 | $62 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9491 | won | 38,398 | $2.0K |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? — No | 0.9940 | won | 27,632 | $166 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? — No | 0.9729 | won | 109,680 | $3.0K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? — No | 0.9780 | won | 20,400 | $449 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? — No | 0.9890 | won | 28,670 | $315 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? — No | 0.9830 | won | 300 | $5 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9970 | won | 197,464 | $592 |
| Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? — No | 0.9500 | won | 789 | $39 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9300 | lost | 1,423 | −$1.3K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No | 0.9671 | won | 168,860 | $5.6K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Yes | 0.4900 | lost | 2 | −$1 |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? — Yes | 0.9940 | won | 110 | $1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 97,590 | $390 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? — No | 0.9695 | won | 44,130 | $1.3K |
| Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? — No | 0.9354 | won | 648 | $42 |
| Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? — Yes | 0.9950 | won | 32,321 | $162 |
| Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — No | 0.9600 | won | 6,237 | $249 |
| Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? — No | 0.9960 | won | 59 | $0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9763 | won | 11,131 | $264 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? — No | 0.9515 | won | 77,710 | $3.8K |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? — No | 0.9903 | won | 10,138 | $98 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? — No | 0.9790 | won | 312 | $7 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9979 | won | 12,881 | $27 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9980 | won | 191,340 | $383 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — No | 0.8935 | won | 68,709 | $7.3K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? — No | 0.9748 | won | 34,263 | $862 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9506 | lost | 12,521 | −$11.9K |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? — Yes | 0.9598 | won | 1,254 | $50 |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? — No | 0.9600 | won | 22 | $1 |
| Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? — No | 0.9230 | won | 219 | $17 |
| Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? — No | 0.9662 | won | 470 | $16 |
| Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? — No | 0.9548 | won | 1,076 | $49 |
| Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? — No | 0.9678 | won | 937 | $30 |
| Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? — No | 0.9722 | won | 958 | $27 |
| Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? — No | 0.9300 | won | 27 | $2 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →