04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.1957
across 149 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+21%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
6.1pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
46%
69 of 149 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 5% | 0% | −5pp |
| 10–25% | 24 | 17% | 17% | −0pp |
| 25–40% | 29 | 33% | 21% | −12pp |
| 40–60% | 64 | 50% | 53% | +3pp |
| 60–75% | 22 | 66% | 77% | +11pp |
| 75–90% | 8 | 78% | 88% | +10pp |
| 90–100% | 1 | 97% | 100% | +3pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$18.4K
9 open positions
Largest position
32%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
2
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$6.6K
against $18.4K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $17.4K across 149 positions, with $74 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? — No | 0.5627 | won | 8,235 | $3.6K |
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.3390 | lost | 13,828 | −$4.7K |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? — No | 0.7181 | lost | 3,409 | −$2.4K |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? — No | 0.4831 | lost | 10,365 | −$5.0K |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.6300 | lost | 15,000 | −$9.4K |
| Cincinnati Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0.4400 | won | 12,500 | $7.0K |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels — Kansas City Royals | 0.5200 | won | 2,855 | $1.4K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? — Yes | 0.1300 | lost | 1,319 | −$171 |
| Cincinnati Open: Peyton Stearns vs Clara Tauson — Peyton Stearns | 0.4800 | lost | 8,543 | −$4.1K |
| Cincinnati Open: Lois Boisson vs Belinda Bencic — Lois Boisson | 0.1900 | won | 12,500 | $10.1K |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins — Philadelphia Phillies | 0.5500 | won | 10,000 | $4.5K |
| Cincinnati Open: Novak Djokovic vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Thiago Agustin Tirante | 0.6000 | won | 13,520 | $5.4K |
| Cincinnati Open: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby — Jenson Brooksby | 0.5300 | lost | 603 | −$320 |
| Cincinnati Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Michael Zheng — Fabian Marozsan | 0.3900 | lost | 1,938 | −$756 |
| Cincinnati Open: Christopher O'Connell vs Kamil Majchrzak — Kamil Majchrzak | 0.3000 | lost | 15,000 | −$4.5K |
| Cincinnati Open: Titouan Droguet vs Matteo Berrettini — Matteo Berrettini | 0.4800 | won | 10,000 | $5.2K |
| National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima — Brandon Nakashima | 0.3200 | lost | 45 | −$15 |
| Cincinnati Open: Nuno Borges vs Thanasi Kokkinakis — Nuno Borges | 0.9700 | won | 12,880 | $386 |
| Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic — Marin Cilic | 0.4300 | lost | 5,737 | −$2.5K |
| Cincinnati Open: Tomas Machac vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Tomas Machac | 0.2200 | lost | 23,000 | −$5.1K |
| Cincinnati Open: Sebastian Baez vs Grigor Dimitrov — Sebastian Baez | 0.1100 | won | 5 | $4 |
| Cincinnati Open: Zachary Svajda vs Mattia Bellucci — Mattia Bellucci | 0.3742 | won | 6,850 | $4.3K |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? — Yes | 0.4483 | lost | 5,407 | −$2.4K |
| National Bank Open: Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina — Coco Gauff | 0.4400 | lost | 3,936 | −$1.7K |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? — No | 0.4300 | won | 10 | $5 |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Ben Shelton — Learner Tien | 0.0496 | lost | 11,107 | −$551 |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima — Brandon Nakashima | 0.6000 | won | 25,000 | $10.0K |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers | 0.5600 | won | 12,500 | $5.5K |
| Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 — Under | 0.5000 | won | 10,000 | $5.0K |
| Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 — Over | 0.5100 | lost | 1,710 | −$872 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 — Under | 0.5400 | won | 2,856 | $1.3K |
| UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims) — Jalin Turner | 0.5100 | won | 5,057 | $2.5K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.1410 | lost | 25,350 | −$3.6K |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners | 0.1600 | lost | 16,000 | −$2.6K |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek — Marta Kostyuk | 0.1800 | lost | 10 | −$2 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? — No | 0.4982 | won | 6,954 | $3.5K |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? — Yes | 0.1500 | lost | 50 | −$8 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.2000 | lost | 8,107 | −$1.6K |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? — No | 0.7500 | won | 147 | $37 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 — Under | 0.4900 | lost | 10,000 | −$4.9K |
| San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 — Over | 0.5000 | lost | 10,000 | −$5.0K |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 — Under | 0.5300 | lost | 93 | −$49 |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 — Over | 0.5300 | lost | 44 | −$24 |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 — Under | 0.4700 | won | 2,419 | $1.3K |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 — Over | 0.5000 | lost | 347 | −$174 |
| Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) — Milwaukee Brewers | 0.5700 | lost | 628 | −$358 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? — Yes | 0.1100 | lost | 4,055 | −$446 |
| National Bank Open: Caty McNally vs Alexandra Eala — Caty McNally | 0.2600 | lost | 8,800 | −$2.3K |
| National Bank Open: Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka — Elise Mertens | 0.3000 | lost | 709 | −$213 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? — No | 0.2400 | lost | 1,102 | −$265 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? — Yes | 0.6500 | won | 3,846 | $1.3K |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15? — No | 0.5900 | lost | 267 | −$158 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 — Over | 0.3800 | lost | 12,500 | −$4.8K |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 — Over | 0.2617 | lost | 603 | −$158 |
| Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) — Texas Rangers | 0.4400 | lost | 2,677 | −$1.2K |
| National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkacz — Botic van de Zandschulp | 0.3391 | won | 13,303 | $8.8K |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? — No | 0.6487 | lost | 7,707 | −$5.0K |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 — Over | 0.5100 | lost | 8 | −$4 |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FaZe (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B — Legacy | 0.5000 | lost | 10,000 | −$5.0K |
| Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 — Under | 0.4700 | won | 10,000 | $5.3K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
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