04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.0349
across 131 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+46%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
2.9pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
93%
122 of 131 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–25% | 2 | 18% | 0% | −18pp |
| 25–40% | 2 | 30% | 0% | −30pp |
| 40–60% | 3 | 48% | 67% | +18pp |
| 60–75% | 6 | 72% | 83% | +11pp |
| 75–90% | 14 | 85% | 86% | +1pp |
| 90–100% | 104 | 98% | 99% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$402.9K
16 open positions
Largest position
24%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
3
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
$1.5K
against $402.9K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $32.8K across 131 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? — No | 0.9870 | won | 575 | $7 |
| Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 13,000 | $26 |
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? — No | 0.1900 | lost | 941 | −$179 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — Yes | 0.9764 | won | 26,939 | $635 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes | 0.9850 | won | 1,777 | $27 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.9886 | won | 155,144 | $1.8K |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 29,524 | $90 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes | 0.9410 | won | 115 | $7 |
| Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — Yes | 0.9862 | won | 22,681 | $312 |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — No | 0.9924 | won | 14,311 | $109 |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? — No | 0.8100 | lost | 2,000 | −$1.6K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — No | 0.9710 | won | 43,236 | $1.3K |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? — No | 0.9404 | won | 33,446 | $2.0K |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? — Yes | 0.9094 | won | 10,059 | $911 |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — No | 0.9576 | won | 988 | $42 |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? — Yes | 0.8700 | won | 12,468 | $1.6K |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? — No | 0.8700 | won | 30,000 | $3.9K |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? — No | 0.9740 | won | 5,900 | $153 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No | 0.9704 | won | 76,768 | $2.3K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9939 | won | 129,566 | $797 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9220 | won | 75,000 | $5.8K |
| Will England win on 2026-07-18? — Yes | 0.8908 | won | 15,000 | $1.6K |
| Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance — France | 0.8995 | won | 6,670 | $670 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? — No | 0.8930 | won | 2,000 | $214 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9950 | won | 19,744 | $99 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? — No | 0.9617 | won | 92,968 | $3.6K |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9485 | won | 30,631 | $1.6K |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 133,148 | $133 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? — No | 0.8810 | won | 21,073 | $2.5K |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.5211 | won | 1,152 | $552 |
| Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.9930 | won | 356 | $2 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No | 0.9513 | won | 62,661 | $3.1K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No | 0.9090 | won | 124,953 | $11.4K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No | 0.9371 | won | 54,308 | $3.4K |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? — No | 0.9529 | won | 48,395 | $2.3K |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? — Yes | 0.9256 | won | 2,398 | $178 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — Yes | 0.9889 | won | 7,262 | $80 |
| Starmer out by June 22, 2026? — Yes | 0.9779 | won | 1,950 | $43 |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — No | 0.9884 | won | 4,486 | $52 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? — No | 0.9846 | won | 220 | $3 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.9825 | won | 42,344 | $739 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? — No | 0.9911 | won | 131,107 | $1.2K |
| Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska — Diana Shnaider | 0.5300 | lost | 3,000 | −$1.6K |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? — Yes | 0.9800 | won | 397 | $8 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — Yes | 0.9076 | won | 40,014 | $3.7K |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — No | 0.9400 | won | 1,841 | $110 |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 244 | $0 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? — No | 0.9341 | won | 137,340 | $9.1K |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? — No | 0.9930 | won | 17,147 | $121 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.9500 | won | 13,000 | $650 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? — No | 0.9890 | won | 100 | $1 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? — No | 0.9786 | won | 14 | $0 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? — No | 0.9260 | won | 100 | $7 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — No | 0.7390 | won | 15,447 | $4.0K |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? — No | 0.9494 | won | 13,144 | $665 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — Yes | 0.1729 | lost | 2,260 | −$391 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? — No | 0.9630 | won | 140,353 | $5.2K |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? — No | 0.9980 | won | 58,584 | $117 |
| Will Union Bordeaux Begles win? — Yes | 0.6900 | won | 5 | $2 |
| Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? — No | 0.9920 | won | 166 | $1 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →