Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 75 | 4% | 1% | −2pp |
| 10–25% | 39 | 17% | 10% | −7pp |
| 25–40% | 20 | 31% | 35% | +4pp |
| 40–60% | 16 | 51% | 56% | +5pp |
| 60–75% | 26 | 66% | 73% | +7pp |
| 75–90% | 23 | 82% | 96% | +13pp |
| 90–100% | 9 | 95% | 89% | −6pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
66% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $178.6K across 208 positions, with $366 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? — No | 0.3087 | lost | 1,008 | −$311 |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — Yes | 0.2096 | lost | 24,594 | −$5.2K |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? — No | 0.6674 | won | 12,716 | $4.2K |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9670 | won | 500 | $17 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.5891 | won | 3,401 | $1.4K |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.3296 | won | 5,305 | $3.6K |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9286 | won | 1,976 | $141 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.6700 | lost | 1,000 | −$670 |
| Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 10,000 | −$10 |
| Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0196 | lost | 509 | −$10 |
| Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0010 | lost | 10,000 | −$10 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0590 | lost | 339 | −$20 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0810 | lost | 247 | −$20 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No | 0.5236 | won | 149,328 | $71.1K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No | 0.7366 | won | 53,184 | $14.0K |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? — Yes | 0.0731 | lost | 1,221 | −$89 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? — No | 0.6282 | won | 5,562 | $2.1K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? — Yes | 0.0650 | lost | 7,734 | −$503 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No | 0.7138 | won | 284,048 | $81.3K |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.5294 | won | 1,032 | $485 |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — Yes | 0.2726 | lost | 1,939 | −$529 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — No | 0.2050 | lost | 599 | −$123 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — Yes | 0.6921 | won | 1,165 | $359 |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — Yes | 0.0351 | lost | 9,448 | −$331 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — Yes | 0.2270 | lost | 1,978 | −$449 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — No | 0.7914 | won | 322 | $67 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — No | 0.3200 | lost | 300 | −$96 |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election — Yes | 0.1901 | won | 1,831 | $1.5K |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election — Yes | 0.7226 | lost | 888 | −$642 |
| Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election — No | 0.6981 | lost | 679 | −$474 |
| Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — No | 0.2329 | lost | 3,625 | −$844 |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? — Yes | 0.2005 | lost | 3,132 | −$628 |
| Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — Yes | 0.1844 | lost | 24,115 | −$4.4K |
| Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — Yes | 0.8050 | won | 595 | $116 |
| Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? — Yes | 0.0129 | lost | 1,479 | −$19 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? — Yes | 0.2073 | lost | 2,587 | −$536 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? — Yes | 0.1528 | lost | 9,036 | −$1.4K |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? — Yes | 0.2508 | won | 927 | $694 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? — No | 0.4000 | lost | 500 | −$200 |
| Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? — No | 0.7600 | won | 0 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? — No | 0.6077 | won | 3,394 | $1.3K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? — No | 0.8405 | won | 728 | $116 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — No | 0.0120 | lost | 299 | −$4 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — Yes | 0.2775 | won | 5,876 | $4.2K |
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — Yes | 0.7088 | lost | 612 | −$434 |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election? — Yes | 0.1206 | lost | 1,597 | −$193 |
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — No | 0.2034 | won | 3,405 | $2.7K |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election? — No | 0.8751 | won | 590 | $74 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — No | 0.8806 | won | 20,688 | $2.5K |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.1764 | lost | 1,179 | −$208 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? — Yes | 0.3696 | lost | 1,375 | −$508 |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? — No | 0.3966 | lost | 915 | −$363 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? — Yes | 0.4643 | lost | 562 | −$261 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April? — Yes | 0.0089 | lost | 373 | −$3 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? — Yes | 0.1600 | lost | 26 | −$4 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April? — No | 0.9578 | won | 813 | $34 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April? — No | 0.9742 | won | 200 | $5 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April? — No | 0.6100 | won | 237 | $92 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April? — Yes | 0.2600 | lost | 41 | −$11 |
| Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? — Yes | 0.0150 | lost | 300 | −$5 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →