Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 3% | 0% | −3pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 74% | 0% | −74pp |
| 75–90% | 2 | 87% | 100% | +13pp |
| 90–100% | 16 | 98% | 100% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
82% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $1.6K across 20 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? — No | 0.9600 | won | 335 | $13 |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.14? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2,551 | $3 |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.12? — No | 0.9990 | won | 4,152 | $4 |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.10? — No | 0.9990 | won | 5,108 | $5 |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.09? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2,551 | $3 |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.08? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2,772 | $3 |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.07? — No | 0.9990 | won | 3,045 | $3 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August? — Yes | 0.9490 | won | 2,000 | $102 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — Yes | 0.0250 | lost | 3,115 | −$78 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? — Yes | 0.9164 | won | 15,280 | $1.3K |
| Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? — No | 0.9964 | won | 3,210 | $12 |
| Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants — Kolkata Knight Riders | 0.7400 | lost | 984 | −$728 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 14? — Yes | 0.9800 | won | 79 | $2 |
| Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer? — No | 0.9990 | won | 164 | $0 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 24? — Yes | 0.9800 | won | 28 | $1 |
| Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13? — No | 0.8820 | won | 28 | $3 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? — Yes | 0.8500 | won | 1,500 | $225 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 26-1? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 7,122 | $7 |
| Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? — Yes | 0.9100 | won | 7,529 | $678 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 28,081 | $56 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →