04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.1248
across 275 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+48%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
3.9pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
60%
166 of 275 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 32 | 5% | 6% | +2pp |
| 10–25% | 38 | 17% | 16% | −1pp |
| 25–40% | 21 | 31% | 43% | +11pp |
| 40–60% | 33 | 51% | 55% | +3pp |
| 60–75% | 22 | 68% | 55% | −14pp |
| 75–90% | 63 | 84% | 84% | −0pp |
| 90–100% | 66 | 95% | 100% | +5pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$521.0K
58 open positions
Largest position
10%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
6
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$11.6K
against $521.0K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $723.8K across 275 positions, with $92 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? — Yes | 0.2917 | won | 7,802 | $5.5K |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? — No | 0.8700 | lost | 12,000 | −$10.4K |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? — No | 0.6384 | lost | 17,525 | −$11.2K |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — No | 0.9920 | won | 2,442 | $20 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? — Yes | 0.6536 | won | 19,955 | $6.9K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.8100 | won | 3,999 | $760 |
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? — No | 0.4400 | lost | 151 | −$66 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? — No | 0.3341 | lost | 17,216 | −$5.8K |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — Yes | 0.9660 | won | 3,962 | $135 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes | 0.4300 | won | 3,023 | $1.7K |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes | 0.2097 | lost | 706 | −$148 |
| Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes | 0.0410 | lost | 6,000 | −$246 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9696 | won | 25,175 | $766 |
| Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 20,000 | −$60 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.8600 | won | 513 | $72 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0900 | lost | 398 | −$36 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes | 0.9438 | won | 4,138 | $233 |
| LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 3 Winner — DN SOOPers Challengers | 0.6200 | lost | 19 | −$12 |
| LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner — Kiwoom DRX Challengers | 0.5300 | lost | 1,328 | −$704 |
| LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner — DN SOOPers Challengers | 0.5700 | won | 40 | $17 |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner — Team Spirit | 0.4800 | lost | 4,174 | −$2.0K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? — Yes | 0.0537 | lost | 18,579 | −$998 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? — Yes | 0.2190 | lost | 26,046 | −$5.7K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.7046 | lost | 4,928 | −$3.5K |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? — No | 0.8801 | won | 13,515 | $1.6K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — Yes | 0.0325 | lost | 81,377 | −$2.6K |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.3396 | lost | 4,994 | −$1.7K |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? — No | 0.8800 | won | 11,139 | $1.3K |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? — No | 0.8843 | won | 15,744 | $1.8K |
| Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? — No | 0.9000 | won | 1,125 | $113 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? — No | 0.9580 | won | 433 | $18 |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — No | 0.1800 | lost | 4,694 | −$845 |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? — Yes | 0.5500 | won | 30 | $14 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026? — Yes | 0.0130 | lost | 166 | −$2 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? — Yes | 0.4712 | lost | 12,586 | −$5.9K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? — Yes | 0.7528 | won | 10,858 | $2.7K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? — Yes | 0.7700 | won | 5,199 | $1.2K |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? — No | 0.5900 | won | 3,760 | $1.5K |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? — No | 0.9000 | won | 8,562 | $856 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? — No | 0.8975 | won | 2,247 | $230 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.9510 | won | 20,089 | $984 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? — No | 0.9830 | won | 1,614 | $27 |
| Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? — No | 0.9680 | won | 426 | $14 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? — Yes | 0.5867 | won | 26,633 | $11.0K |
| Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? — No | 0.5922 | won | 5,527 | $2.3K |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.6990 | won | 6,000 | $1.8K |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? — Yes | 0.5015 | lost | 7,444 | −$3.7K |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.2998 | won | 2,655 | $1.9K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — Yes | 0.2610 | lost | 75,969 | −$19.8K |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? — No | 0.9600 | won | 7,285 | $291 |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? — No | 0.8570 | lost | 10,766 | −$9.2K |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.9500 | won | 1,788 | $89 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? — Yes | 0.3445 | won | 2,730 | $1.8K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.4910 | won | 32,253 | $16.4K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.8061 | won | 6,381 | $1.2K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? — Yes | 0.7198 | won | 6,109 | $1.7K |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? — Yes | 0.2329 | lost | 21,637 | −$5.0K |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9747 | won | 45,000 | $1.1K |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.8830 | won | 15,000 | $1.8K |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? — No | 0.9790 | won | 75 | $2 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →