Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 12 | 3% | 0% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 8 | 16% | 38% | +21pp |
| 25–40% | 9 | 31% | 11% | −20pp |
| 40–60% | 16 | 51% | 56% | +5pp |
| 60–75% | 14 | 69% | 50% | −19pp |
| 75–90% | 38 | 84% | 79% | −5pp |
| 90–100% | 233 | 97% | 95% | −3pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$68.9K across 330 positions, with $1.3K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? — Yes | 0.9945 | won | 10,853 | $59 |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? — No | 0.9557 | won | 18,553 | $823 |
| EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? — No | 0.9990 | won | 35,282 | $37 |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? — No | 0.8700 | won | 692 | $90 |
| EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? — No | 0.9990 | won | 7,718 | $8 |
| EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? — Yes | 0.8200 | won | 5,130 | $923 |
| Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.9982 | won | 12,770 | $23 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? — No | 0.8505 | lost | 102,670 | −$87.3K |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? — No | 0.6000 | lost | 230 | −$138 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — Yes | 0.9735 | won | 11,299 | $300 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.9903 | won | 211,078 | $2.0K |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9603 | won | 51,726 | $2.1K |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? — Yes | 0.1320 | lost | 169 | −$22 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? — No | 0.9990 | won | 81 | $0 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27? — No | 0.9984 | won | 133,819 | $210 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? — No | 0.9973 | won | 22,863 | $61 |
| Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? — No | 0.9970 | won | 18,188 | $55 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? — No | 0.8769 | lost | 5,843 | −$5.1K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August? — No | 0.9910 | lost | 116 | −$115 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? — No | 0.9778 | lost | 5,072 | −$5.0K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? — No | 0.9660 | lost | 318 | −$307 |
| Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale? — Yes | 0.8364 | won | 1,386 | $227 |
| Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? — No | 0.9870 | won | 2,010 | $26 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? — No | 0.9200 | won | 15,788 | $1.3K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — No | 0.9774 | won | 43,086 | $973 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? — No | 0.9325 | won | 16,061 | $1.1K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? — No | 0.9740 | won | 600 | $16 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? — No | 0.9821 | won | 7,868 | $141 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? — No | 0.9611 | won | 12,620 | $491 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? — No | 0.9819 | won | 11,343 | $205 |
| Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France? — Yes | 0.9097 | won | 88,307 | $8.0K |
| Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France? — No | 0.9849 | won | 36,751 | $556 |
| Will Mads Pedersen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France? — Yes | 0.9686 | won | 580 | $18 |
| Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France? — No | 0.9901 | won | 1,868 | $19 |
| Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France? — Yes | 0.0062 | lost | 10,045 | −$62 |
| Will Florian Lipowitz win the 2026 Tour De France? — Yes | 0.0011 | lost | 2,965 | −$3 |
| Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 410 | −$1 |
| Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France? — No | 0.9044 | won | 113,963 | $10.9K |
| Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France? — Yes | 0.0229 | lost | 4,046 | −$93 |
| Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France? — No | 0.9910 | won | 9,824 | $89 |
| Will Florian Lipowitz win the 2026 Tour De France? — No | 0.9894 | won | 2,309 | $24 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 6? — No | 0.9990 | won | 3,621 | $4 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 6? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 4,875 | $10 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July? — No | 0.9716 | won | 65,678 | $1.9K |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July? — No | 0.9945 | won | 2,081 | $12 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? — No | 0.9921 | won | 709 | $6 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July? — No | 0.9657 | won | 640 | $22 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? — No | 0.9850 | won | 19,876 | $299 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? — No | 0.9675 | won | 9,571 | $311 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July? — No | 0.9891 | won | 5,309 | $58 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July? — No | 0.9883 | won | 96,755 | $1.1K |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July? — No | 0.9742 | won | 21,699 | $559 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July? — No | 0.9859 | won | 12,955 | $182 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July? — No | 0.9898 | won | 19,283 | $197 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.9930 | won | 2,114 | $15 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.9940 | won | 892 | $5 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.9910 | won | 128 | $1 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July? — No | 0.9880 | won | 1,042 | $13 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July? — No | 0.9940 | won | 4,289 | $26 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? — No | 0.8500 | lost | 251 | −$213 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →