Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1405

across 382 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+41%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

3.5pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

38%

147 of 382 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	70	6%	6%	+0pp
10–25%	83	16%	13%	−3pp
25–40%	78	32%	32%	+0pp
40–60%	74	49%	47%	−2pp
60–75%	26	68%	88%	+20pp
75–90%	35	84%	94%	+10pp
90–100%	16	96%	100%	+4pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$559.9K

44 open positions

Largest position

18%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

$5.0K

against $559.9K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $673.4K across 382 positions, with $7.3K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? — Yes	0.8550	lost	1,612	−$1.4K
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? — No	0.7597	won	8,014	$1.9K
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? — Yes	0.8400	won	7,521	$1.2K
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — No	0.7700	won	188	$43
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? — No	0.4123	won	451	$265
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? — Yes	0.3130	won	252,643	$173.6K
US forces enter Iran by December 31? — No	0.3447	lost	52,713	−$18.2K
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.5286	won	37,352	$17.6K
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0142	lost	7,750	−$110
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0122	lost	11,645	−$142
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0694	lost	11,641	−$808
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — No	0.1202	lost	85,046	−$10.2K
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No	0.9734	won	80,477	$2.1K
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.9573	won	294,456	$12.6K
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — No	0.1700	lost	2,664	−$453
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — No	0.5866	won	4,040	$1.7K
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0289	lost	6,995	−$202
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0052	lost	8,331	−$43
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? — Yes	0.8808	won	18,567	$2.2K
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Yes	0.0799	lost	2,274	−$182
Will Russell Fry replace Graham as South Carolina Senator? — No	0.9276	won	1,587	$115
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? — Yes	0.2882	lost	2,470	−$712
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? — No	0.0531	lost	334,736	−$17.8K
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? — Yes	0.4155	won	17,392	$10.2K
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs — Team Yandex	0.3000	lost	50,000	−$15.0K
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs — Team Liquid	0.3700	lost	50,000	−$18.5K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? — Yes	0.1874	lost	85,817	−$16.1K
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — No	0.8840	won	1,794	$208
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? — No	0.1400	lost	14,718	−$2.1K
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03? — Yes	0.8712	won	1,733	$223
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? — Yes	0.7330	won	261	$70
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? — Yes	0.0316	lost	76,276	−$2.4K
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? — No	0.7720	won	13,892	$3.2K
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Milwaukee Brewers	0.2300	lost	209	−$48
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? — Yes	0.8272	won	827	$143
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? — Yes	0.9353	won	3,383	$219
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? — Yes	0.4459	won	62,774	$34.8K
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? — Yes	0.5632	won	6,440	$2.8K
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? — Yes	0.0725	lost	56	−$4
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference? — No	0.8883	won	604	$67
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.1823	lost	496,885	−$90.6K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.1454	lost	688,077	−$100.0K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.7432	won	68,308	$17.5K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.7419	won	178,976	$46.2K
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No	0.8726	won	13,723	$1.7K
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.3200	lost	10,000	−$3.2K
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No	0.9486	won	86,016	$4.4K
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0296	lost	195,493	−$5.8K
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance — Spain	0.9549	won	14,040	$634
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? — No	0.9895	won	28,912	$305
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals — No	0.6500	won	12,519	$4.4K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? — No	0.2532	won	2,100	$1.6K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — Yes	0.1576	lost	47,662	−$7.5K
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11? — Yes	0.0700	lost	9,001	−$630
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? — No	0.5700	won	5,448	$2.3K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? — No	0.2666	won	2,074	$1.5K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? — No	0.3096	won	18,932	$13.1K
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? — Yes	0.4597	won	5,971	$3.2K
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? — Yes	0.5234	won	1,606	$765
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No	0.9244	won	226,423	$17.1K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →