Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.2404

across 12 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

−8%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

26.7pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

33%

4 of 12 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	7	6%	14%	+9pp
10–25%	4	17%	75%	+58pp
25–40%	1	29%	0%	−29pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$143

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

−$8.6K

against $143 of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $10.1K across 12 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July? — Yes	0.1834	won	11,575	$9.5K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? — Yes	0.0981	won	7,503	$6.8K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? — Yes	0.0315	lost	146,988	−$4.6K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? — Yes	0.1089	lost	118,114	−$12.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? — Yes	0.2913	lost	23,655	−$6.9K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? — Yes	0.0985	lost	25,679	−$2.5K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? — Yes	0.0537	lost	16,406	−$881
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? — Yes	0.0130	lost	12,958	−$168
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? — No	0.1637	won	3,928	$3.3K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? — Yes	0.2335	won	24,276	$18.6K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 6 2026? — Yes	0.0823	lost	193	−$16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of April 6 2026? — Yes	0.0210	lost	14	−$0

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →