Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–25% | 1 | 15% | 0% | −15pp |
| 25–40% | 2 | 34% | 0% | −34pp |
| 40–60% | 2 | 57% | 0% | −57pp |
| 60–75% | 9 | 68% | 56% | −13pp |
| 75–90% | 2 | 80% | 100% | +20pp |
| 90–100% | 1 | 98% | 100% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$25.0K across 17 positions, with $588 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh — Arthur Gea | 0.7000 | won | 4,327 | $1.3K |
| Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Rodrigo Pacheco — Sebastian Baez | 0.6998 | won | 4,024 | $1.2K |
| Cincinnati Open: Katie Boulter vs Katie Volynets — Katie Boulter | 0.6465 | won | 4,341 | $1.5K |
| Bloomfield Hills: Alex Michelsen vs Mark Lajal — Alex Michelsen | 0.7500 | won | 6,471 | $1.6K |
| Estoril Open: Jaime Faria vs Luciano Darderi — Luciano Darderi | 0.8490 | won | 48 | $7 |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea — Aryna Sabalenka | 0.7054 | lost | 3,624 | −$2.6K |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca — Joao Fonseca | 0.6700 | lost | 2,574 | −$1.7K |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone — Felix Auger-Aliassime | 0.6354 | lost | 3,472 | −$2.2K |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rebeka Masarova vs Leylah Fernandez — Leylah Fernandez | 0.5691 | lost | 6,670 | −$3.8K |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva — Vit Kopriva | 0.6989 | lost | 4,292 | −$3.0K |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? — Yes | 0.3191 | lost | 30,258 | −$9.7K |
| Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) — Tottenham Hotspur FC | 0.3639 | lost | 15,397 | −$5.6K |
| UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) — Joaquin Buckley | 0.1500 | lost | 10,509 | −$1.6K |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves — Spurs | 0.7300 | won | 2,232 | $603 |
| Knicks vs. 76ers — 76ers | 0.5800 | lost | 5,172 | −$3.0K |
| Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva — Mirra Andreeva | 0.9799 | won | 404 | $8 |
| Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev — Alexander Zverev | 0.6700 | won | 5,672 | $1.9K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →