Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 7 | 0% | 0% | −0pp |
| 90–100% | 15 | 100% | 100% | +0pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$4 across 22 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 80 | $0 |
| Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 85 | $0 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9980 | won | 173 | $0 |
| Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 310 | −$1 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — No | 0.0090 | lost | 175 | −$2 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 433 | −$1 |
| Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9985 | won | 170 | $0 |
| Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 168 | $0 |
| Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 174 | $0 |
| Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9980 | won | 87 | $0 |
| Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 370 | −$1 |
| Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 84 | $0 |
| Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 407 | −$1 |
| Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 276 | −$1 |
| Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9980 | won | 86 | $0 |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 84 | $0 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 83 | $0 |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? — No | 0.9970 | won | 84 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? — No | 0.9990 | won | 84 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 373 | −$1 |
| Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9980 | won | 85 | $0 |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9970 | won | 87 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →