Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–25% | 1 | 23% | 0% | −23pp |
| 25–40% | 1 | 31% | 0% | −31pp |
| 40–60% | 2 | 57% | 0% | −57pp |
| 60–75% | 2 | 66% | 100% | +34pp |
| 75–90% | 11 | 82% | 91% | +8pp |
| 90–100% | 10 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
83% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$14.9K across 27 positions, with $7.2K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.8097 | won | 563,382 | $107.2K |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? — Yes | 0.7642 | won | 330 | $78 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Yes | 0.2320 | lost | 10,222 | −$2.4K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9586 | won | 166,378 | $6.9K |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? — Yes | 0.9162 | won | 2,097 | $176 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? — No | 0.3148 | lost | 278,857 | −$87.8K |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? — Yes | 0.6351 | won | 16,617 | $6.1K |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? — Yes | 0.8132 | lost | 34,329 | −$27.9K |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) — Switzerland | 0.5933 | lost | 22,971 | −$13.6K |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? — Yes | 0.6900 | won | 16,634 | $5.2K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? — No | 0.9504 | won | 7,860 | $390 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.5452 | lost | 124,976 | −$68.1K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.8231 | won | 176,409 | $31.2K |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? — No | 0.9175 | won | 12,873 | $1.1K |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? — No | 0.8648 | won | 19,222 | $2.6K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? — No | 0.8386 | won | 72,504 | $11.7K |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? — Yes | 0.9400 | won | 632 | $38 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? — No | 0.9387 | won | 28,833 | $1.8K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? — No | 0.8403 | won | 29,000 | $4.6K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? — No | 0.9100 | won | 3,351 | $302 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? — No | 0.9558 | won | 7,404 | $327 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9486 | won | 18,408 | $945 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? — Yes | 0.8059 | won | 10,561 | $2.0K |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? — Yes | 0.8477 | won | 6,000 | $914 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? — Yes | 0.9500 | won | 595 | $30 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? — Yes | 0.8500 | won | 2,593 | $389 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? — No | 0.8165 | won | 5,416 | $994 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →