Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1120

across 5 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+30%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

5.7pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

20%

1 of 5 paid out

Only 5 resolved positions. Below about 8 these scores are noise rather than signal: a couple of lucky or unlucky resolutions move them entirely. Treat everything here as provisional.

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	2	6%	0%	−6pp
10–25%	1	14%	0%	−14pp
40–60%	2	49%	50%	+1pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$69.2K

2 open positions

Largest position

99%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

$50.6K

against $69.2K of open value

99% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $17.2K across 5 positions, with $153 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.1376	lost	154	−$21
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0782	lost	25,343	−$2.0K
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? — No	0.4688	won	56,648	$30.1K
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0379	lost	100,422	−$3.8K
US government shutdown Saturday? — No	0.5013	lost	14,142	−$7.1K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →