Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1782

across 90 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+17%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

7.3pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

31%

28 of 90 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	12	5%	0%	−5pp
10–25%	16	15%	6%	−9pp
25–40%	12	36%	33%	−3pp
40–60%	37	51%	43%	−8pp
60–75%	13	64%	54%	−11pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$207

29 open positions

Largest position

13%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$30

against $207 of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $112 across 90 positions, with $6 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — Yes	0.0300	lost	33	−$1
Will Diogo Dalot attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — Yes	0.1200	lost	8	−$1
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — Yes	0.6300	lost	2	−$1
Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — Yes	0.5500	lost	2	−$1
Will Ricardo Quaresma attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? — Yes	0.6100	lost	2	−$1
US forces enter Iran by December 31? — Yes	0.4433	won	45	$25
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? — Yes	0.5600	won	9	$4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — Yes	0.4300	won	6	$3
FK Spartak Moskva vs. FK Zenit: Both Teams to Score — Yes	0.5600	lost	3	−$2
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12? — Yes	0.5600	won	18	$8
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? — No	0.4263	lost	23	−$10
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? — Yes	0.6300	won	8	$3
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.2110	lost	118	−$25
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.1310	lost	191	−$25
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.1080	lost	231	−$25
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.1560	won	160	$135
World Cup: Will Argentina Play Portugal? — Yes	0.3800	lost	13	−$5
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.4667	won	40	$21
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.6000	won	62	$25
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.4600	won	14	$7
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? — Yes	0.4500	lost	22	−$10
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? — Yes	0.0970	lost	10	−$1
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? — Yes	0.1800	lost	17	−$3
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? — No	0.1600	lost	6	−$1
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? — No	0.0700	lost	14	−$1
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No	0.6690	won	15	$5
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — No	0.3400	lost	15	−$5
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? — Yes	0.0606	lost	17	−$1
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? — Yes	0.3190	lost	16	−$5
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? — Yes	0.0570	lost	88	−$5
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — Yes	0.4600	lost	2	−$1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? — Yes	0.3951	won	13	$8
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? — Yes	0.4900	won	10	$5
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? — Yes	0.6700	lost	19	−$12
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? — Yes	0.4700	lost	21	−$10
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes	0.2709	won	198	$144
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes	0.3661	lost	148	−$54
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — No	0.3900	lost	13	−$5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? — No	0.2400	lost	4	−$1
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — No	0.0040	lost	250	−$1
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? — No	0.0400	lost	25	−$1
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? — No	0.0240	lost	28	−$1
Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? — No	0.0097	lost	103	−$1
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? — Yes	0.1100	lost	9	−$1
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? — Yes	0.4700	lost	21	−$10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? — Yes	0.3100	lost	16	−$5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? — Yes	0.5300	lost	9	−$5
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? — Yes	0.1313	lost	84	−$11
US forces enter Iran by March 31? — Yes	0.3700	lost	10	−$4
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs — TheMongolz	0.5100	lost	10	−$5
Games Total: O/U 2.5 — Over	0.4800	lost	10	−$5
Knicks vs. Hornets — Knicks	0.4800	lost	10	−$5
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? — Yes	0.6399	lost	25	−$16
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? — Yes	0.5900	won	17	$7
Pistons vs. Spurs — Pistons	0.4100	lost	12	−$5
Jazz vs. Wizards — Wizards	0.5400	lost	9	−$5
Will Team Vitality win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026? — Yes	0.5100	won	16	$8
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? — Yes	0.5100	lost	2	−$1
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 23? — Yes	0.1500	lost	7	−$1
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 23? — Yes	0.0453	lost	22	−$1

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →