04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.2138
across 592 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+12%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
2.5pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
59%
347 of 592 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 11 | 3% | 0% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 9 | 18% | 44% | +27pp |
| 25–40% | 46 | 34% | 28% | −6pp |
| 40–60% | 287 | 52% | 54% | +2pp |
| 60–75% | 142 | 66% | 65% | −1pp |
| 75–90% | 72 | 82% | 83% | +1pp |
| 90–100% | 25 | 94% | 88% | −6pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$92.5K
18 open positions
Largest position
28%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
2
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$185
against $92.5K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $89.0K across 592 positions, with $24.1K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — No | 0.2900 | lost | 3,000 | −$870 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? — Yes | 0.4322 | won | 5,708 | $3.2K |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9766 | won | 1,765 | $41 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.8949 | won | 12,092 | $1.3K |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? — No | 0.8309 | won | 1,395 | $236 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.2786 | lost | 3,589 | −$1000 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.1700 | won | 244 | $202 |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Sebastian Baez — Sebastian Baez | 0.6051 | lost | 33,052 | −$20.0K |
| Augsburg: Facundo Mena vs Kai Wehnelt — Kai Wehnelt | 0.3449 | lost | 29,244 | −$10.1K |
| Winston-Salem Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Luciano Darderi — Mattia Bellucci | 0.4600 | lost | 23,913 | −$11.0K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Kei Nishikori — Kei Nishikori | 0.5100 | won | 16,552 | $8.1K |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? — Yes | 0.5071 | won | 9,861 | $4.9K |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? — Yes | 0.6460 | won | 7,740 | $2.7K |
| Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe — Frances Tiafoe | 0.3600 | lost | 13,889 | −$5.0K |
| Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) — Tiafoe | 0.5929 | won | 16,867 | $6.9K |
| Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) — M80 | 0.4700 | lost | 42,553 | −$20.0K |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — Spirit | 0.7200 | won | 69,138 | $19.4K |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B — FUT Esports | 0.5900 | lost | 66,738 | −$39.4K |
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) — 9z | 0.6200 | lost | 56,306 | −$34.9K |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — Natus Vincere | 0.6975 | lost | 28,985 | −$20.2K |
| Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) — FURIA | 0.5600 | won | 25,770 | $11.3K |
| Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) — Natus Vincere | 0.5600 | lost | 29,857 | −$16.7K |
| Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs DENDELE CS (+1.5) — DENDELE CS | 0.3400 | lost | 11,661 | −$4.0K |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — Aurora Gaming | 0.4900 | lost | 20,408 | −$10.0K |
| Sabah FK vs. MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva: Team to Advance — Sabah FK | 0.4300 | won | 15,248 | $8.7K |
| Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev — Daniil Medvedev | 0.5780 | lost | 43,254 | −$25.0K |
| Cincinnati Open: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges — Andrey Rublev | 0.6400 | lost | 25,000 | −$16.0K |
| Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-24? — No | 0.6000 | won | 33,333 | $13.3K |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Tampa Bay Rays | 0.6105 | won | 27,408 | $10.7K |
| Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo — Alejandro Tabilo | 0.3200 | lost | 21,326 | −$6.8K |
| Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) — Landaluce | 0.6824 | lost | 16,120 | −$11.0K |
| Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) — Hijikata | 0.5300 | lost | 9,434 | −$5.0K |
| Cincinnati Open: Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli — Alexander Blockx | 0.5400 | lost | 18,519 | −$10.0K |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-23? — No | 0.8721 | won | 11,467 | $1.5K |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23? — No | 0.7929 | won | 12,611 | $2.6K |
| Will Venezia FC win on 2026-08-23? — Yes | 0.5400 | lost | 9,259 | −$5.0K |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 4 Winner — Spirit | 0.7163 | won | 34,628 | $9.8K |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner — FUT Esports | 0.3900 | won | 12,821 | $7.8K |
| Games Total: O/U 3.5 — Over | 0.6718 | won | 330 | $108 |
| Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) — FUT Esports | 0.4400 | lost | 27,901 | −$12.3K |
| Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Zizou Bergs — Daniel Merida Aguilar | 0.5482 | won | 19,083 | $8.6K |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — FUT Esports | 0.3988 | won | 48,147 | $28.9K |
| Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) — FUT Esports | 0.6717 | won | 37,609 | $12.3K |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — Vitality | 0.5894 | lost | 50,900 | −$30.0K |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.4999 | won | 30,003 | $15.0K |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — Legacy | 0.6500 | won | 15,385 | $5.4K |
| Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) — Legacy | 0.5630 | won | 23,092 | $10.1K |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — FUT Esports | 0.4000 | won | 37,500 | $22.5K |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5000 | lost | 20,000 | −$10.0K |
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) — FUT Esports | 0.6701 | won | 22,383 | $7.4K |
| Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) — Nakashima | 0.6198 | lost | 263 | −$163 |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — FURIA | 0.5741 | won | 85,797 | $36.5K |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) — FaZe | 0.5221 | lost | 53,700 | −$28.0K |
| Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) — B8 | 0.4700 | lost | 59,439 | −$27.9K |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — Natus Vincere | 0.7000 | lost | 59,235 | −$41.5K |
| Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — MOUZ | 0.6804 | won | 20,293 | $6.5K |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — Aurora Gaming | 0.4061 | lost | 36,936 | −$15.0K |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.4766 | won | 17,163 | $9.0K |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — magic | 0.3447 | lost | 49,323 | −$17.0K |
| Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) — Nakashima | 0.5785 | won | 5,226 | $2.2K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →