Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 8% | 0% | −8pp |
| 10–25% | 8 | 16% | 38% | +21pp |
| 25–40% | 35 | 35% | 37% | +3pp |
| 40–60% | 111 | 50% | 42% | −8pp |
| 60–75% | 38 | 66% | 63% | −3pp |
| 75–90% | 11 | 80% | 82% | +2pp |
| 90–100% | 1 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
59% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$168.2K across 205 positions, with $652 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winston-Salem Open: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Adolfo Vallejo — Pablo Carreno Busta | 0.5500 | lost | 801 | −$441 |
| Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 3.5 Corners — Over | 0.5200 | lost | 1,959 | −$1.0K |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner — Team Falcons | 0.7700 | won | 3,372 | $775 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 175.5 — Under | 0.5400 | won | 185 | $85 |
| Portland Fire vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 — Under | 0.5200 | won | 10,000 | $4.8K |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros — Houston Astros | 0.5300 | lost | 9,434 | −$5.0K |
| Martin Odegaard: Anytime Goalscorer — Yes | 0.2593 | won | 687 | $509 |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs — TEAM VISION | 0.6300 | won | 31,746 | $11.7K |
| Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) — Los Angeles Angels | 0.5500 | won | 7,575 | $3.4K |
| Cincinnati Open: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Anna Blinkova — Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 0.5400 | lost | 1,180 | −$637 |
| Todi: Daniel Michalski vs Lukas Neumayer — Daniel Michalski | 0.3000 | lost | 2 | −$1 |
| LoL: Estral Esports vs RMD Gaming - Game 2 Winner — Estral Esports | 0.8700 | won | 5 | $1 |
| Game Handicap: EST (-1.5) vs RMD Gaming (+1.5) — Estral Esports | 0.7700 | won | 1,388 | $319 |
| LoL: Brod n Friends vs DMG Esports - Game 2 Winner — DMG Esports | 0.5000 | won | 12 | $6 |
| National Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Tallon Griekspoor | 0.5500 | lost | 20,000 | −$11.0K |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Elimination Round — Aurora | 0.5900 | lost | 12,712 | −$7.5K |
| National Bank Open: Alexandra Eala vs Belinda Bencic — Belinda Bencic | 0.5200 | won | 7,025 | $3.4K |
| Portsmouth FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 2.5 — Under | 0.5300 | lost | 1,689 | −$895 |
| Bolton Wanderers FC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 2.5 — Under | 0.5200 | lost | 742 | −$386 |
| Bristol City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.4900 | lost | 202 | −$99 |
| Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) — St. Louis Cardinals | 0.5400 | lost | 3,339 | −$1.8K |
| National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca — Joao Fonseca | 0.5400 | won | 16,031 | $7.4K |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FaZe (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B — Legacy | 0.4900 | lost | 30,612 | −$15.0K |
| Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 174.5 — Under | 0.5100 | won | 1,008 | $494 |
| PFK CSKA Sofia vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.4900 | won | 1,999 | $1.0K |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti — Lorenzo Musetti | 0.4500 | lost | 6,445 | −$2.9K |
| Hagen: Carlos Taberner vs Marko Topo — Carlos Taberner | 0.3900 | won | 160 | $98 |
| Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Joel Schwaerzler vs Aziz Dougaz — Aziz Dougaz | 0.4400 | lost | 10 | −$4 |
| Hagen: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Tom Gentzsch — Tom Gentzsch | 0.5695 | won | 107 | $46 |
| Istanbul 2: Tiago Pereira vs Max Basing — Tiago Pereira | 0.4200 | lost | 25 | −$11 |
| Hagen: Carlos Taberner vs Juan Bautista Torres — Carlos Taberner | 0.5100 | won | 16,619 | $8.1K |
| Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov — Denis Shapovalov | 0.5800 | lost | 5,183 | −$3.0K |
| Lexington: Henry Searle vs Lloyd Harris — Henry Searle | 0.4579 | lost | 2,702 | −$1.2K |
| Hagen: Guy Den Ouden vs Alexandre Muller — Guy Den Ouden | 0.5377 | won | 10,000 | $4.6K |
| Canadian Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone — Mariano Navone | 0.3851 | won | 19,356 | $11.9K |
| UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) — Diyar Nurgozhay | 0.6100 | won | 788 | $307 |
| UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card) — Diego Ferreira | 0.6200 | won | 5,174 | $2.0K |
| UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card) — Mateusz Gamrot | 0.4300 | lost | 3,926 | −$1.7K |
| Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves — Washington Nationals | 0.4500 | lost | 5,583 | −$2.5K |
| ITF Pergamino: Carolina Alves vs Giorgia Pedone — Giorgia Pedone | 0.6632 | lost | 1,019 | −$676 |
| Canadian Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz — Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 0.3300 | lost | 819 | −$270 |
| ITF Pergamino: Justina Gonzalez Daniele vs Francesca Mattioli — Justina Gonzalez Daniele | 0.6274 | lost | 5,519 | −$3.5K |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti — Matteo Arnaldi | 0.4094 | lost | 935 | −$383 |
| UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad (Featherweight, Prelims) — Dennis Buzukja | 0.3698 | lost | 4,872 | −$1.8K |
| UFC Fight Night: Ludovit Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims) — Ludovit Klein | 0.6800 | lost | 2,416 | −$1.6K |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group — Hanwha Life Esports | 0.6600 | lost | 20,966 | −$13.8K |
| Fight to Go the Distance? — Yes | 0.4277 | lost | 355 | −$152 |
| UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) — Ismael Bonfim | 0.3700 | lost | 1,841 | −$681 |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds — Over | 0.5000 | lost | 63 | −$32 |
| Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 — Under | 0.4800 | won | 20,000 | $10.4K |
| Valorant: 100 Thieves vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega — KRÜ Esports | 0.2700 | lost | 5,796 | −$1.6K |
| Swedish Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Luciano Darderi — Adolfo Vallejo | 0.3100 | lost | 35,520 | −$11.0K |
| Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) — Cerundolo | 0.6655 | won | 3,691 | $1.2K |
| Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-07-23? — No | 0.6300 | lost | 4,171 | −$2.6K |
| Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 179.5 — Over | 0.4700 | lost | 15 | −$7 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 — Under | 0.5000 | won | 3,035 | $1.5K |
| Spread: Athletics (-1.5) — Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.6300 | won | 3,704 | $1.4K |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds — Under | 0.4800 | won | 105 | $55 |
| UFC Fight Night: Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Prelims) — Austin Bashi | 0.5229 | lost | 6,759 | −$3.5K |
| UFC Fight Night: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Seokhyeon Ko (Welterweight, Prelims) — Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 0.3500 | won | 17 | $11 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →