Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 4% | 0% | −4pp |
| 25–40% | 1 | 35% | 0% | −35pp |
| 40–60% | 4 | 41% | 0% | −41pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 61% | 100% | +39pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 77% | 100% | +23pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$1.4K across 8 positions, with $81 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) — Islam Makhachev | 0.7700 | won | 519 | $119 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.4120 | lost | 728 | −$300 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.6110 | won | 818 | $318 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.4125 | lost | 1,212 | −$500 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance — Argentina | 0.4200 | lost | 1,190 | −$500 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-15? — Yes | 0.3525 | lost | 1,135 | −$400 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? — Yes | 0.4075 | lost | 245 | −$100 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET — Down | 0.0362 | lost | 1,505 | −$54 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →