Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0000

across 8 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

n/a

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

0.4pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

100%

8 of 8 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
90–100%	8	100%	100%	+0pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$123

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

−$0

against $123 of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $2 across 8 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — No	0.9940	won	120	$1
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? — No	0.9990	won	14	$0
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? — No	0.9950	won	15	$0
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? — No	0.9940	won	13	$0
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? — No	0.9990	won	13	$0
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? — No	0.9990	won	13	$0
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? — No	0.9990	won	15	$0
Trump out as President by March 31? — No	0.9900	won	120	$1

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →