Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2 | 0% | 0% | −0pp |
| 90–100% | 23 | 100% | 100% | +0pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $5 across 25 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9990 | won | 119 | $0 |
| Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9990 | won | 116 | $0 |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9970 | won | 121 | $0 |
| Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9970 | won | 118 | $0 |
| Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 118 | $0 |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9960 | won | 122 | $0 |
| Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9980 | won | 121 | $0 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 117 | $0 |
| Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9970 | won | 114 | $0 |
| Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9970 | won | 121 | $0 |
| Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 123 | $0 |
| Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? — No | 0.9990 | won | 116 | $0 |
| Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9985 | won | 241 | $0 |
| Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 119 | $0 |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9890 | won | 122 | $1 |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 431 | −$1 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 117 | $0 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 10? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 115 | $0 |
| Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 116 | $0 |
| Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 369 | −$1 |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9980 | won | 119 | $0 |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9980 | won | 121 | $0 |
| Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9980 | won | 120 | $0 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? — Yes | 0.9987 | won | 119 | $0 |
| Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 123 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →