04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.0266
across 83 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
−13%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
6.1pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
98%
81 of 83 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 3 | 7% | 33% | +26pp |
| 25–40% | 1 | 33% | 100% | +67pp |
| 40–60% | 3 | 51% | 100% | +49pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 74% | 100% | +26pp |
| 75–90% | 4 | 85% | 100% | +15pp |
| 90–100% | 71 | 98% | 100% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$66.3K
342 open positions
Largest position
7%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
21
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$9.1K
against $66.3K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $288 across 83 positions, with $8 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Seattle Storm win the 2026 WNBA Finals? — No | 0.9875 | won | 268 | $3 |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? — Yes | 0.0090 | lost | 10,918 | −$98 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9790 | won | 30 | $1 |
| Will Angel Ayora win the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open? — No | 0.9900 | won | 50 | $1 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? — No | 0.8500 | won | 56 | $8 |
| ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan — Naoya Honda | 0.4409 | won | 188 | $105 |
| ITF Hurghada: Martyna Kubka vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson — Martyna Kubka | 0.4906 | won | 264 | $135 |
| Will Matt Kuchar finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? — No | 0.9600 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Brian Campbell win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Shaun Micheel finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? — No | 0.9800 | won | 100 | $2 |
| Will Paul McClure finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? — No | 0.9800 | won | 50 | $1 |
| Will Bryce Fisher finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? — No | 0.9800 | won | 90 | $2 |
| Will Jason Dufner finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? — No | 0.9800 | won | 80 | $2 |
| Will Chandler Blanchet finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Pierceson Coody finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Patrick Rodgers finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Aldrich Potgieter finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Kristoffer Reitan finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Patrick Rodgers finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Kristoffer Reitan finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Aldrich Potgieter finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Pierceson Coody finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Chandler Blanchet finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Jake Knapp finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Truist Championship? — No | 0.7400 | won | 5 | $1 |
| Will Jake Knapp finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Truist Championship? — No | 0.9100 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Jake Knapp finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Truist Championship? — Yes | 0.1000 | lost | 300 | −$30 |
| Will Tom Kim win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Jordan L. Smith win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Patrick Rodgers win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Pierceson Coody win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Chandler Blanchet win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 30 | $0 |
| Will Zach Bauchou win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9800 | won | 100 | $2 |
| Will Luke Clanton win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Kensei Hirata win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Mark Hubbard win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Christo Lamprecht win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Peter Malnati win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Chandler Phillips win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Trent Phillips win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Ryan Ruffels win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Marcelo Rozo win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Adam Schenk win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Kevin Streelman win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Brendon Todd win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Webb Simpson win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 30 | $0 |
| Will Evan Harmeling win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Grant Haefner win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Brice Garnett win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Tyler Collet win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Davis Chatfield win the 2026 ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic? — No | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Lucas Glover win the 2026 Truist Championship? — No | 0.9900 | won | 4 | $0 |
| Will Brian Campbell win the 2026 Truist Championship? — No | 0.9884 | won | 6 | $0 |
| Will Akshay Bhatia finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Cadillac Championship? — No | 0.0990 | won | 25 | $23 |
| Will Daniel Berger finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Cadillac Championship? — No | 0.8900 | won | 80 | $9 |
| Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? — No | 0.9990 | won | 29 | $0 |
| Will Daniel Berger finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? — No | 0.9990 | won | 14 | $0 |
| Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? — No | 0.9990 | won | 14 | $0 |
| Will Jacob Bridgeman finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? — No | 0.9920 | won | 30 | $0 |
| Will Shane Lowry finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? — No | 0.8400 | won | 79 | $13 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →