Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0956

across 12 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+31%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

14.6pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

17%

2 of 12 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	9	4%	0%	−4pp
10–25%	2	13%	50%	+37pp
25–40%	1	36%	100%	+64pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$43

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

against $43 of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$1.1K across 12 positions, with $19 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.1087	lost	8,323	−$905
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0500	lost	878	−$44
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes	0.3600	won	3,745	$2.4K
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0480	lost	5,208	−$250
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0035	lost	100,000	−$350
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March? — Yes	0.0300	lost	85	−$3
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? — Yes	0.1600	won	994	$835
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? — Yes	0.0600	lost	10,000	−$600
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? — Yes	0.0290	lost	26,474	−$767
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? — Yes	0.0724	lost	14,505	−$1.1K
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? — Yes	0.0690	lost	4,348	−$300
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? — Yes	0.0190	lost	5,263	−$100

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →