Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.2223

across 217 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+11%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

3.0pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

48%

105 of 217 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	5	8%	0%	−8pp
10–25%	18	19%	22%	+3pp
25–40%	28	35%	32%	−2pp
40–60%	96	49%	48%	−2pp
60–75%	44	65%	59%	−5pp
75–90%	26	81%	77%	−4pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$34.5K

27 open positions

Largest position

36%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$2.8K

against $34.5K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$89.0K across 217 positions, with $5.9K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins — Minnesota Twins	0.5200	lost	252	−$131
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals	0.4285	won	34,350	$19.6K
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Seattle Mariners	0.4200	lost	654	−$275
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.5100	lost	28,689	−$14.6K
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays	0.5000	lost	4,546	−$2.3K
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves	0.5300	won	32,657	$15.3K
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals	0.5700	won	25,877	$11.1K
Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Aleksandar Kovacevic — Aleksandar Kovacevic	0.4700	lost	56	−$26
Winston-Salem Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Botic van de Zandschulp — Benjamin Bonzi	0.3600	won	4,624	$3.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Nishesh Basavareddy — Arthur Gea	0.6002	lost	2,435	−$1.5K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin — Toby Samuel	0.6780	won	497	$160
US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald — Dalibor Svrcina	0.5500	won	163	$73
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — Chicago Cubs	0.5200	lost	37,813	−$19.7K
Winston-Salem Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs James Duckworth — Lorenzo Sonego	0.5544	lost	6,254	−$3.5K
Winston-Salem Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Luciano Darderi — Botic van de Zandschulp	0.5600	won	5,455	$2.4K
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants — Cincinnati Reds	0.4800	won	1,531	$796
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays	0.5700	won	992	$426
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals	0.5900	lost	32,685	−$19.3K
Winston-Salem Open: Adam Walton vs Ignacio Buse — Adam Walton	0.6200	lost	811	−$503
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics — Athletics	0.4220	lost	1,795	−$757
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants	0.4000	won	1,452	$871
Winston-Salem Open: Roman Safiullin vs Hugo Grenier — Roman Safiullin	0.8300	lost	7,010	−$5.8K
Winston-Salem Open: Jan Choinski vs Mees Rottgering — Jan Choinski	0.5600	lost	5	−$3
US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Juan Pablo Varillas	0.3000	lost	307	−$92
Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Renata Zarazua — Clara Tauson	0.7390	won	6,534	$1.7K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Akasha Urhobo — Akasha Urhobo	0.3400	lost	1,098	−$373
US Open, Qualification WTA: Linda Klimovicova vs Lisa Pigato — Linda Klimovicova	0.6500	won	857	$300
US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini — Ayla Aksu	0.2100	lost	656	−$138
US Open, Qualification ATP: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Tom Gentzsch — Tom Gentzsch	0.6493	won	1,714	$601
US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Francesco Maestrelli — Toby Samuel	0.7527	won	1,250	$309
US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov — Jurij Rodionov	0.5800	won	2,857	$1.2K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Liam Broady — Marco Cecchinato	0.2734	won	3,061	$2.2K
Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra Oliynykova — Oleksandra Oliynykova	0.4692	won	2,920	$1.5K
Winston-Salem Open: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Adolfo Vallejo — Pablo Carreno Busta	0.5400	lost	18	−$10
Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Hubert Hurkacz — Hubert Hurkacz	0.6900	won	1,935	$600
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners	0.4900	lost	1,188	−$582
Winston-Salem Open, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Dhakshineswar Suresh — Dhakshineswar Suresh	0.5200	lost	505	−$263
Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula — Jessica Pegula	0.4200	lost	11,766	−$4.9K
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres — Minnesota Twins	0.4200	lost	2,758	−$1.2K
Monterrey Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Emiliana Arango — Panna Udvardy	0.4400	won	278	$156
Cincinnati Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils — Arthur Fils	0.7000	won	2,016	$605
Roda JC Kerkrade vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5 — Under	0.4493	lost	1,974	−$887
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.2100	lost	2,729	−$573
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.0800	lost	3,488	−$279
Will Grenoble Foot 38 win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.7600	lost	15	−$11
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.3500	won	1,339	$871
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.1600	won	733	$615
Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.3200	lost	922	−$295
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.5167	won	559	$270
Cincinnati Open: Sara Bejlek vs Madison Keys — Madison Keys	0.6400	lost	25	−$16
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros — Houston Astros	0.6300	lost	31,022	−$19.5K
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-08-27? — Yes	0.0700	lost	16,889	−$1.2K
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) — New York Mets	0.4800	lost	122	−$59
CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5 — Under	0.4900	won	7,198	$3.7K
Cincinnati Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime — Frances Tiafoe	0.3400	won	17,378	$11.5K
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 — Under	0.4693	lost	6,765	−$3.2K
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 — Over	0.4800	won	607	$316
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — FURIA	0.7700	won	95	$22
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-08-26? — No	0.5700	lost	558	−$318
Gangwon FC vs. Gwangju FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners — Under	0.5800	lost	289	−$168

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →