Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1572

across 976 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+36%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

2.8pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

44%

434 of 976 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	131	5%	5%	+0pp
10–25%	179	18%	13%	−5pp
25–40%	151	32%	33%	+1pp
40–60%	213	50%	50%	+0pp
60–75%	137	67%	73%	+6pp
75–90%	122	82%	89%	+7pp
90–100%	43	94%	93%	−1pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$1.8K

18 open positions

Largest position

39%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$281

against $1.8K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$1.4K across 976 positions, with $839 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Spain vs. Portugal — Portugal	0.2830	won	438	$314
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy — Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.7478	won	125	$32
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy — Italy	0.4100	lost	13	−$5
T20 Asia Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Thailand — Hong Kong, China	0.2466	lost	1,012	−$250
Delhi Premier League: Central Delhi Kings vs Purani Dilli 6 — Purani Dilli 6	0.4120	lost	71	−$29
T20 Asia Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Thailand — Thailand	0.8452	won	93	$14
Tamil Nadu Premier League: Madurai Panthers vs VIDA Kovai Kings — Madurai Panthers	0.2666	lost	106	−$28
Cape Verde vs. Guinea — Guinea	0.8665	won	45	$6
Cape Verde vs. Guinea — Cape Verde	0.2733	lost	60	−$16
South Africa and Zimbabwe Tour of Namibia T20s: Namibia vs South Africa — Namibia	0.3520	won	175	$113
South Africa and Zimbabwe Tour of Namibia T20s: Namibia vs South Africa — South Africa	0.7225	lost	498	−$360
Delhi Premier League: Central Delhi Kings vs Purani Dilli 6 — Central Delhi Kings	0.5329	won	14	$7
Jordan vs. Philippines — Philippines	0.4663	won	116	$62
Jordan vs. Philippines — Jordan	0.7117	lost	447	−$318
South Sudan vs. Nigeria — Nigeria	0.3214	lost	72	−$23
South Sudan vs. Nigeria — South Sudan	0.8256	won	36	$6
Game Spread: Fery (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) — Fery	0.3000	won	12	$8
Tunisia vs. Cape Verde — Tunisia	0.5100	won	10	$5
Hungary vs. Estonia — Hungary	0.6700	won	7	$2
Hungary vs. Estonia — Estonia	0.6100	lost	20	−$12
Qatar vs. China — Qatar	0.0933	lost	135	−$13
Qatar vs. China — China	0.9000	won	240	$24
US Open, Qualification WTA: Gabriela Knutson vs Ekaterine Gorgodze — Ekaterine Gorgodze	0.1900	lost	50	−$10
Nigeria vs. Cameroon — Cameroon	0.4650	won	40	$21
Nigeria vs. Cameroon — Nigeria	0.7936	lost	9	−$7
Angola vs. DR Congo — DR Congo	0.2000	lost	5	−$1
Angola vs. DR Congo — Angola	0.8600	won	46	$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET — Down	0.1900	lost	33	−$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET — Up	0.5400	won	19	$9
Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET — Up	0.3500	won	5	$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET — Down	0.7749	lost	15	−$12
Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET — Down	0.0600	won	13	$12
XRP Up or Down - August 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET — Up	0.5000	won	5	$3
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Team 6seven - Game 1 Winner — Team 6seven	0.1920	lost	194	−$37
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Team 6seven - Game 1 Winner — Team Nemesis	0.7348	won	103	$27
Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5 — Under	0.7115	won	424	$122
Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Score — Yes	0.2612	lost	421	−$110
Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5 — Over	0.3298	lost	121	−$40
Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5 — Under	0.3779	lost	162	−$61
Spread: Club Tijuana (-2.5) — Club Tijuana	0.2290	lost	44	−$10
Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5 — Over	0.7507	won	200	$50
Exact Score: Club Tijuana 2 - 0 Pumas de la UNAM? — Yes	0.2900	won	5	$4
Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Score — No	0.7600	won	89	$21
Exact Score: Club Tijuana 1 - 0 Pumas de la UNAM? — No	0.6700	won	11	$4
Exact Score: Club Tijuana 2 - 0 Pumas de la UNAM? — No	0.7700	lost	22	−$17
Dota 2: Nexus Gaming vs Crescent (BO3) - BLAST Slam China Closed Qualifier Playoffs — Nexus Gaming	0.6703	lost	98	−$65
Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 0.5 — Over	0.9283	won	148	$11
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-08-28? — No	0.7933	won	49	$10
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.4356	won	549	$310
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-08-28? — Yes	0.2677	lost	22	−$6
Exact Score: Club Tijuana 1 - 1 Pumas de la UNAM? — Yes	0.1300	lost	12	−$2
Dota 2: Nexus Gaming vs Crescent - Game 2 Winner — Nexus Gaming	0.7433	lost	12	−$9
San Diego Wave FC vs. Racing Louisville FC: O/U 5.5 — Over	0.3420	lost	249	−$85
Atlante FC vs. Club León FC: O/U 1.5 — Under	0.0474	lost	554	−$26
Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 — Under	0.5422	won	476	$218
Atlante FC vs. Club León FC: O/U 1.5 — Over	0.6719	won	27	$9
Exact Score: Club Tijuana 3 - 1 Pumas de la UNAM? — Yes	0.0630	lost	22	−$1
Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: 1st Half O/U 0.5 — Over	0.4500	lost	88	−$40
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5) — Toronto Tempo	0.1965	lost	69	−$14
Atlante FC vs. Club León FC: O/U 0.5 — Under	0.2500	lost	55	−$14

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

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