Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 16 | 4% | 6% | +3pp |
| 10–25% | 10 | 17% | 10% | −7pp |
| 25–40% | 7 | 32% | 29% | −4pp |
| 40–60% | 10 | 49% | 30% | −19pp |
| 60–75% | 5 | 67% | 80% | +13pp |
| 75–90% | 10 | 85% | 100% | +15pp |
| 90–100% | 112 | 98% | 99% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
91% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $402.1K across 170 positions, with $741 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 30,000 | $30 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9851 | won | 608,510 | $9.0K |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0090 | lost | 136 | −$1 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0060 | lost | 229 | −$1 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? — No | 0.9950 | won | 14,490 | $72 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9970 | won | 94,750 | $285 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.2744 | lost | 299,649 | −$82.2K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.2616 | lost | 134,903 | −$35.3K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.6236 | won | 28,065 | $10.6K |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? — No | 0.1400 | lost | 42 | −$6 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? — No | 0.2300 | lost | 200 | −$46 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 480,000 | $480 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.9950 | won | 668 | $3 |
| Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? — No | 0.9720 | won | 79 | $2 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? — No | 0.9959 | won | 29,171 | $118 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 52,429 | −$157 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9980 | won | 66,766 | $134 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9930 | won | 43,933 | $308 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9950 | won | 1,048 | $5 |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.5600 | lost | 1,147 | −$642 |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? — No | 0.0050 | lost | 645 | −$3 |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? — No | 0.8414 | won | 509 | $81 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? — No | 0.9734 | won | 1,364 | $36 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? — No | 0.9642 | won | 5,816 | $208 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 367,287 | $1.5K |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? — No | 0.4068 | lost | 1,723 | −$701 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9930 | won | 149,509 | $1.0K |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? — No | 0.9883 | won | 97,540 | $1.1K |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31? — No | 0.9960 | won | 7,418 | $30 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9848 | won | 253,511 | $3.9K |
| Will three people dissent the March Fed decision? — Yes | 0.2400 | lost | 70 | −$17 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? — No | 0.9903 | won | 11,787 | $115 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026? — Yes | 0.0080 | lost | 2,133 | −$17 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9573 | won | 795,366 | $33.9K |
| Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? — No | 0.9980 | won | 769,250 | $1.5K |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? — Yes | 0.3390 | lost | 5 | −$2 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? — No | 0.8240 | won | 32,611 | $5.7K |
| Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? — Yes | 0.9434 | won | 9,201 | $521 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9591 | won | 389,332 | $15.9K |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.4479 | lost | 54,917 | −$24.6K |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9906 | won | 350,631 | $3.3K |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9880 | won | 827,150 | $9.9K |
| Will no one dissent October Fed decision? — No | 0.9500 | won | 4,468 | $223 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9803 | won | 565,720 | $11.2K |
| Will one person dissent the October Fed decision? — Yes | 0.7487 | lost | 1,271 | −$952 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9094 | won | 693,163 | $62.8K |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9665 | won | 137,330 | $4.6K |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9585 | won | 92,254 | $3.8K |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? — No | 0.9870 | won | 80,219 | $1.0K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? — Yes | 0.9950 | won | 140,028 | $700 |
| Gold missing from Fort Knox? — No | 0.8300 | won | 5,589 | $950 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9640 | won | 430,418 | $15.5K |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? — No | 0.9647 | won | 560,795 | $19.8K |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.8914 | won | 333,290 | $36.2K |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9843 | won | 4,665 | $73 |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 297,169 | $1.2K |
| Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 100 days? — No | 0.9657 | won | 3,212 | $110 |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? — No | 0.7600 | won | 975 | $234 |
| Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? — No | 0.9465 | lost | 200 | −$189 |
| Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA before April? — No | 0.9747 | won | 35,138 | $888 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →