04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.2155
across 311 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+14%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
6.9pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
52%
163 of 311 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 6 | 5% | 0% | −5pp |
| 10–25% | 28 | 19% | 18% | −2pp |
| 25–40% | 77 | 33% | 39% | +6pp |
| 40–60% | 145 | 49% | 58% | +9pp |
| 60–75% | 27 | 66% | 74% | +8pp |
| 75–90% | 16 | 83% | 81% | −2pp |
| 90–100% | 12 | 96% | 92% | −4pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$292.0K
7 open positions
Largest position
49%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
2
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
$5.3K
against $292.0K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $100.4K across 311 positions, with $3.1K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Clara Tauson — Ekaterina Alexandrova | 0.4521 | lost | 469 | −$212 |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner — Team Yandex | 0.4049 | won | 57,112 | $34.0K |
| Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5) — Team Yandex | 0.3348 | won | 42 | $28 |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner — Team Yandex | 0.3681 | lost | 10,141 | −$3.7K |
| Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs — BoomBoys | 0.5800 | won | 17,064 | $7.2K |
| Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winner — Nigma Galaxy | 0.3900 | won | 8,530 | $5.2K |
| Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winner — BoomBoys | 0.5700 | won | 5,837 | $2.5K |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner — Team Liquid | 0.4622 | lost | 20,443 | −$9.4K |
| Cincinnati Open: Lois Boisson vs Belinda Bencic — Belinda Bencic | 0.7800 | lost | 15,227 | −$11.9K |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner — Team Spirit | 0.3900 | lost | 1,455 | −$567 |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs — Team Spirit | 0.3600 | lost | 8,970 | −$3.2K |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner — Team Liquid | 0.5000 | won | 24,200 | $12.1K |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner — Team Falcons | 0.7800 | won | 15,524 | $3.4K |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner — Team Falcons | 0.4800 | lost | 3,243 | −$1.6K |
| Cincinnati Open: Peyton Stearns vs Harriet Dart — Peyton Stearns | 0.6600 | won | 2,000 | $680 |
| Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs BoomBoys (+1.5) — BoomBoys | 0.5100 | won | 30 | $15 |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winner — BoomBoys | 0.3100 | won | 6,078 | $4.2K |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs — TEAM VISION | 0.7400 | won | 2,465 | $641 |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winner — BoomBoys | 0.3300 | lost | 107 | −$35 |
| Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs — Iron Wing | 0.5363 | lost | 15,599 | −$8.4K |
| Game Handicap: IW (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5) — Iron Wing | 0.2700 | lost | 59 | −$16 |
| Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner — Iron Wing | 0.5200 | lost | 1,073 | −$558 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? — Yes | 0.9850 | won | 31,000 | $466 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? — No | 0.3487 | lost | 25,643 | −$8.9K |
| Counter-Strike: Sinners vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins — EYEBALLERS | 0.5000 | won | 2,000 | $1.0K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? — Yes | 0.8943 | won | 50,814 | $5.4K |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET — Up | 0.4241 | lost | 467 | −$198 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET — Down | 0.3390 | won | 584 | $386 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET — Up | 0.4543 | won | 1,090 | $595 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET — Down | 0.3592 | lost | 1,103 | −$396 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET — Down | 0.4445 | lost | 1,782 | −$792 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET — Up | 0.4774 | won | 2,407 | $1.3K |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET — Down | 0.4277 | lost | 3,009 | −$1.3K |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET — Down | 0.3505 | lost | 1,695 | −$594 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET — Up | 0.5732 | lost | 1,169 | −$670 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET — Down | 0.3492 | won | 2,268 | $1.5K |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET — Up | 0.4698 | won | 202 | $107 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET — Down | 0.3318 | lost | 744 | −$247 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET — Down | 0.2165 | lost | 1,372 | −$297 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET — Up | 0.5155 | won | 1,152 | $558 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET — Down | 0.4205 | won | 471 | $273 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET — Up | 0.3664 | lost | 1,621 | −$594 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET — Up | 0.3488 | lost | 674 | −$235 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET — Down | 0.8287 | won | 1,434 | $246 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET — Up | 0.4674 | won | 1,630 | $868 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET — Down | 0.5086 | won | 2,036 | $1.0K |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET — Down | 0.6095 | won | 2,115 | $826 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET — Down | 0.6647 | lost | 1,006 | −$669 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET — Up | 0.2910 | won | 1,092 | $774 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET — Up | 0.3629 | won | 3,468 | $2.2K |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET — Up | 0.4931 | lost | 1,627 | −$802 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET — Up | 0.6100 | lost | 325 | −$198 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? — Yes | 0.9861 | won | 20,628 | $286 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? — Yes | 0.9505 | won | 37,221 | $1.8K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? — Yes | 0.9048 | won | 5,709 | $543 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? — Yes | 0.8718 | won | 17,351 | $2.2K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.8240 | won | 5 | $1 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET — Up | 0.5660 | won | 1,252 | $543 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET — Down | 0.3204 | lost | 1,996 | −$640 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET — Up | 0.5023 | won | 2,365 | $1.2K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →