Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 6 | 4% | 17% | +13pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 68% | 100% | +32pp |
| 75–90% | 5 | 84% | 80% | −4pp |
| 90–100% | 8 | 94% | 75% | −19pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$3.5K across 20 positions, with $24 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 43,649 | −$87 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? — Yes | 0.0148 | lost | 31,132 | −$459 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? — Yes | 0.0174 | lost | 65,565 | −$1.1K |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.0180 | lost | 23,741 | −$426 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — Yes | 0.0688 | lost | 33,000 | −$2.3K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET — Down | 0.9500 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET — Up | 0.9200 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET — Down | 0.9473 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET — Up | 0.9203 | lost | 5 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET — Up | 0.9900 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET — Down | 0.9400 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET — Down | 0.8900 | won | 6 | $1 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.0900 | won | 1,000 | $910 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET — Up | 0.9000 | lost | 5 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET — Up | 0.8700 | won | 6 | $1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET — Up | 0.9500 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET — Up | 0.8600 | won | 6 | $1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET — Up | 0.7900 | lost | 6 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET — Up | 0.8000 | won | 6 | $1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET — Up | 0.6800 | won | 7 | $2 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →