Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 42 | 3% | 5% | +1pp |
| 10–25% | 32 | 17% | 25% | +8pp |
| 25–40% | 61 | 32% | 30% | −3pp |
| 40–60% | 79 | 50% | 68% | +19pp |
| 60–75% | 40 | 66% | 75% | +9pp |
| 75–90% | 16 | 79% | 81% | +2pp |
| 90–100% | 2 | 93% | 100% | +7pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $1.6K across 272 positions, with $342 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5 — Over | 0.9466 | won | 446 | $24 |
| Spread: Club Tijuana (-1.5) — Club Tijuana | 0.4200 | won | 10 | $6 |
| Will Club León FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.2120 | lost | 5,050 | −$1.1K |
| Will Atlante FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.0625 | lost | 365 | −$23 |
| Club Necaxa vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.8500 | won | 845 | $127 |
| Will Montevideo Wanderers win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.5290 | won | 274 | $129 |
| Will KRC Genk win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.6118 | won | 5,334 | $2.1K |
| Will FC Groningen win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.3569 | lost | 3,832 | −$1.4K |
| Will El Ahly SC win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.1280 | lost | 173 | −$22 |
| Will Korona Kielce win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.5799 | won | 1,550 | $651 |
| Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.0400 | lost | 73 | −$3 |
| Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5) — Shanghai Haigang FC | 0.1300 | lost | 10 | −$1 |
| Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.7700 | won | 520 | $120 |
| Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.2700 | lost | 814 | −$220 |
| Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.1691 | lost | 1,031 | −$174 |
| Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-08-29? — Yes | 0.7200 | won | 1,806 | $506 |
| Will Inter Club d'Escaldes win on 2026-08-27? — Yes | 0.2774 | lost | 1,348 | −$374 |
| Spread: SK Brann (-1.5) — SK Brann | 0.3700 | lost | 1,069 | −$396 |
| Will SK Brann win on 2026-08-27? — Yes | 0.4700 | won | 2,000 | $1.1K |
| RKS Raków Częstochowa vs. HNK Hajduk Split: 1st Half O/U 0.5 — Under | 0.0098 | lost | 364 | −$4 |
| Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-27? — Yes | 0.5053 | lost | 1,987 | −$1.0K |
| Will CF América win on 2026-08-26? — No | 0.3460 | lost | 4,351 | −$1.5K |
| CF América vs. Columbus Crew: Both Teams to Score — Yes | 0.6400 | lost | 35 | −$22 |
| Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-08-26? — Yes | 0.0800 | lost | 1,000 | −$80 |
| Will Austin FC win on 2026-08-26? — Yes | 0.0100 | lost | 270 | −$3 |
| Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-19? — No | 0.5900 | won | 85 | $35 |
| Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5) — SE Palmeiras | 0.4100 | won | 1,936 | $1.1K |
| Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-08-26? — No | 0.7000 | lost | 83 | −$58 |
| Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-08-26? — Yes | 0.4122 | won | 4,526 | $2.7K |
| Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-08-26? — No | 0.5400 | lost | 10 | −$5 |
| Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) — Fenerbahçe SK | 0.0500 | lost | 110 | −$6 |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-26? — Yes | 0.0750 | lost | 1,000 | −$75 |
| Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5 — Over | 0.4655 | lost | 1,866 | −$868 |
| Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC win on 2026-08-26? — No | 0.0272 | lost | 36,465 | −$991 |
| Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-08-25? — Yes | 0.2100 | lost | 550 | −$116 |
| Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-08-25? — Yes | 0.4233 | won | 2,698 | $1.6K |
| Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-25? — Yes | 0.2858 | lost | 104 | −$30 |
| LASK Linz vs. Celtic FC: Team to Advance — Celtic FC | 0.0100 | lost | 2,411 | −$24 |
| LASK Linz vs. Celtic FC: O/U 5.5 — Over | 0.0100 | lost | 1,000 | −$10 |
| LASK Linz vs. Celtic FC: Team to Advance — LASK Linz | 0.2300 | won | 103 | $80 |
| Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-08-25? — Yes | 0.3289 | won | 5,171 | $3.5K |
| Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 — Under | 0.0300 | lost | 206 | −$6 |
| Sabah FK vs. MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva: 1st Half O/U 1.5 — Under | 0.0100 | lost | 1,804 | −$18 |
| Will CA Talleres win on 2026-08-24? — No | 0.8100 | won | 132 | $25 |
| CA Tigre vs. CA Central Córdoba: 1st Half O/U 0.5 — Under | 0.0200 | lost | 255 | −$5 |
| Spread: Granada CF (-1.5) — Granada CF | 0.3300 | won | 5 | $3 |
| Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 5.5 — Under | 0.7000 | won | 1,000 | $300 |
| Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-08-24? — Yes | 0.7129 | won | 8,728 | $2.5K |
| AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 — Under | 0.0200 | lost | 10 | −$0 |
| Will AS Roma win on 2026-08-24? — Yes | 0.5700 | won | 2,000 | $860 |
| Will Once Caldas win on 2026-08-22? — Yes | 0.0533 | lost | 4,107 | −$219 |
| Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-08-23? — Yes | 0.2903 | lost | 200 | −$58 |
| Will Racing Club win on 2026-08-23? — Yes | 0.3000 | lost | 8 | −$2 |
| Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-08-23? — Yes | 0.5600 | won | 114 | $50 |
| Spread: Coritiba FBC (-1.5) — Coritiba FBC | 0.1700 | lost | 981 | −$167 |
| Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-08-23? — Yes | 0.3587 | lost | 3,651 | −$1.3K |
| Will CD Palestino win on 2026-08-23? — Yes | 0.2994 | won | 59 | $41 |
| Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-08-23? — No | 0.5200 | won | 1,232 | $591 |
| Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5) — São Paulo FC | 0.2400 | lost | 2,000 | −$480 |
| Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-08-23? — No | 0.3225 | lost | 8,659 | −$2.8K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →