Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0740

across 28 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+64%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

13.6pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

29%

8 of 28 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	14	3%	0%	−3pp
10–25%	5	16%	0%	−16pp
25–40%	1	35%	100%	+65pp
40–60%	3	50%	100%	+50pp
60–75%	3	63%	67%	+3pp
75–90%	2	80%	100%	+20pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$88.2K

11 open positions

Largest position

57%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

$12.8K

against $88.2K of open value

57% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$77.8K across 28 positions, with $4.3K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.1477	lost	484,179	−$71.5K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0052	lost	598,427	−$3.1K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0346	lost	561	−$19
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — Yes	0.6513	won	2,947	$1.0K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0098	lost	59,645	−$584
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0358	lost	155,130	−$5.6K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — No	0.0600	lost	124	−$7
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? — No	0.3519	won	3,488	$2.3K
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? — Yes	0.0248	lost	1,982	−$49
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? — No	0.5505	won	7,240	$3.3K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.4511	won	50,338	$27.6K
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? — Yes	0.6233	won	106	$40
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0082	lost	3,314	−$27
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? — No	0.6297	lost	658	−$415
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? — Yes	0.2139	lost	313	−$67
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? — No	0.1600	lost	92	−$15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0188	lost	638,600	−$12.0K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0247	lost	239,225	−$5.9K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0159	lost	36,725	−$583
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.7568	won	17,379	$4.2K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? — Yes	0.1888	lost	1,747	−$330
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? — Yes	0.1060	lost	1,570	−$166
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? — Yes	0.5000	won	1,010	$505
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? — No	0.0040	lost	11,684	−$47
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0025	lost	200,000	−$500
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0995	lost	135,542	−$13.5K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0067	lost	607,474	−$4.1K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.8500	won	11,000	$1.7K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →