Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0002

across 12 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

n/a

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

1.2pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

100%

12 of 12 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
90–100%	12	99%	100%	+1pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$263.7K

11 open positions

Largest position

55%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

$3.0K

against $263.7K of open value

55% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $3.8K across 12 positions, with $55 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.9973	won	7,884	$21
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.9941	won	1,946	$11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.9968	won	33,820	$109
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.9970	won	10,071	$30
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.9870	won	8,072	$105
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.9688	won	33,855	$1.1K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? — No	0.9908	won	64,831	$594
Trump out as President by April 30? — No	0.9860	won	100	$1
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.9883	won	114,862	$1.3K
Will Trump visit China by May 31? — Yes	0.9953	won	56,957	$269
Will Trump visit China by May 15? — Yes	0.9658	won	6,430	$220
Will Trump visit China by June 30? — Yes	0.9943	won	3,683	$21

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →