Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 15 | 4% | 0% | −4pp |
| 10–25% | 17 | 15% | 24% | +8pp |
| 25–40% | 35 | 34% | 31% | −3pp |
| 40–60% | 185 | 50% | 51% | +1pp |
| 60–75% | 26 | 66% | 73% | +8pp |
| 75–90% | 4 | 82% | 50% | −32pp |
| 90–100% | 4 | 93% | 100% | +7pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $82.2K across 286 positions, with $6.2K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays — No | 0.5400 | won | 3,444 | $1.6K |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers — Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.6300 | won | 5,578 | $2.1K |
| Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — James Duckworth | 0.4200 | lost | 200 | −$84 |
| Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals | 0.4200 | won | 1,000 | $580 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Texas Rangers | 0.3400 | lost | 9 | −$3 |
| Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Team 6seven - Game 1 Winner — Team 6seven | 0.4400 | lost | 237 | −$104 |
| Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.2646 | lost | 4,105 | −$1.1K |
| Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Score — Yes | 0.5700 | lost | 862 | −$491 |
| Club Tijuana vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5200 | lost | 4,778 | −$2.5K |
| Exact Score: Club Tijuana 3 - 1 Pumas de la UNAM? — Yes | 0.0504 | lost | 419 | −$21 |
| Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.4714 | won | 9,017 | $4.8K |
| Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) — Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.4000 | won | 1,326 | $796 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 — Over | 0.5600 | won | 1,294 | $569 |
| San Francisco Giants winning after 5 innings? — No | 0.5800 | won | 387 | $163 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 — Under | 0.5400 | lost | 1,030 | −$556 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 — Under | 0.6500 | lost | 12 | −$8 |
| Exact Score: Club Tijuana 2 - 1 Pumas de la UNAM? — Yes | 0.1000 | lost | 354 | −$35 |
| San Diego Wave FC vs. Racing Louisville FC: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.6100 | won | 73 | $28 |
| Spread: Washington Mystics (-6.5) — Los Angeles Sparks | 0.5696 | won | 7,006 | $3.0K |
| Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-13.5) — Toronto Tempo | 0.4814 | lost | 20,052 | −$9.7K |
| San Diego Wave FC vs. Racing Louisville FC: O/U 2.5 — Under | 0.4100 | lost | 336 | −$138 |
| Washington Mystics vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 167.5 — Under | 0.5106 | lost | 888 | −$453 |
| San Diego Wave FC vs. Racing Louisville FC: O/U 4.5 — Under | 0.8100 | lost | 55 | −$45 |
| O/U 55.5 — Over | 0.4698 | won | 403 | $214 |
| Washington Mystics vs. Los Angeles Sparks — Los Angeles Sparks | 0.3500 | won | 1,282 | $833 |
| Spread: Idaho (-4.5) — Idaho | 0.5369 | lost | 1,033 | −$555 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces — Las Vegas Aces | 0.9065 | won | 3,503 | $328 |
| Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) — Los Angeles Sparks | 0.4700 | won | 607 | $322 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5 — Under | 0.6192 | won | 1,190 | $453 |
| Spread: Idaho (-5.5) — Idaho | 0.4935 | lost | 275 | −$136 |
| Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-13.5) — Las Vegas Aces | 0.5276 | won | 3,495 | $1.7K |
| Idaho vs. Cal Poly: O/U 54.5 — Over | 0.5100 | won | 193 | $95 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 — Under | 0.5200 | won | 1,127 | $541 |
| Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5) — Las Vegas Aces | 0.4651 | won | 9,545 | $5.1K |
| San Diego Wave FC vs. Racing Louisville FC: O/U 5.5 — Over | 0.1000 | lost | 340 | −$34 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5 — Under | 0.4640 | won | 868 | $465 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 — Over | 0.4684 | lost | 5,299 | −$2.5K |
| Exact Score: Club Tijuana 3 - 0 Pumas de la UNAM? — Yes | 0.0400 | lost | 94 | −$4 |
| Exact Score: Club Tijuana 3 - 2 Pumas de la UNAM? — Yes | 0.0306 | lost | 198 | −$6 |
| Idaho vs. Cal Poly: O/U 53.5 — Over | 0.5591 | won | 986 | $435 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 — Under | 0.4910 | won | 2,066 | $1.1K |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5 — Under | 0.5600 | won | 274 | $121 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 173.5 — Over | 0.5283 | lost | 2,349 | −$1.2K |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 — Over | 0.5000 | lost | 1,039 | −$520 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 178.5 — Over | 0.3900 | lost | 6 | −$2 |
| Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5) — Las Vegas Aces | 0.4033 | won | 732 | $437 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5 — Over | 0.4500 | lost | 1,209 | −$544 |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 — Over | 0.4200 | lost | 326 | −$137 |
| Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5) — Toronto Tempo | 0.4400 | lost | 848 | −$373 |
| Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5) — Toronto Tempo | 0.5400 | lost | 22 | −$12 |
| Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-12.5) — Las Vegas Aces | 0.5600 | won | 4,338 | $1.9K |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 — Under | 0.5300 | won | 512 | $241 |
| Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) — Philadelphia Phillies | 0.4100 | won | 145 | $86 |
| Philadelphia Phillies winning after 5 innings? — Yes | 0.4200 | lost | 125 | −$53 |
| Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5) — Toronto Tempo | 0.6108 | lost | 450 | −$275 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 — Over | 0.4121 | lost | 436 | −$180 |
| Idaho vs. Cal Poly: O/U 54.5 — Under | 0.5296 | lost | 383 | −$203 |
| Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) — Baltimore Orioles | 0.4100 | lost | 1,500 | −$615 |
| Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) — Los Angeles Angels | 0.7000 | won | 805 | $242 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 — Over | 0.4800 | lost | 718 | −$345 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →