Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 21 | 2% | 0% | −2pp |
| 10–25% | 9 | 15% | 22% | +8pp |
| 40–60% | 4 | 46% | 50% | +4pp |
| 60–75% | 3 | 70% | 100% | +30pp |
| 75–90% | 2 | 85% | 100% | +15pp |
| 90–100% | 4 | 98% | 100% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $3.2K across 43 positions, with $147 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? — Yes | 0.1769 | lost | 947 | −$168 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? — Yes | 0.1096 | lost | 680 | −$75 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? — No | 0.0217 | lost | 571 | −$12 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day? — Yes | 0.0632 | lost | 1,580 | −$100 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day? — Yes | 0.0339 | lost | 899 | −$30 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? — Yes | 0.1118 | lost | 899 | −$100 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? — Yes | 0.0111 | lost | 224 | −$2 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? — Yes | 0.1200 | lost | 68 | −$8 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? — Yes | 0.1771 | won | 445 | $366 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.7125 | won | 4,166 | $1.2K |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? — No | 0.0121 | lost | 2,783 | −$34 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.8310 | won | 186 | $31 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.7426 | won | 317 | $82 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.1344 | lost | 1,876 | −$252 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.5009 | won | 10,529 | $5.3K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0417 | lost | 33,273 | −$1.4K |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0168 | lost | 16,109 | −$270 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 12,953 | −$39 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1572 | lost | 415 | −$65 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0363 | lost | 1,119 | −$41 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? — Yes | 0.0201 | lost | 24,764 | −$498 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? — Yes | 0.1266 | lost | 452 | −$57 |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0222 | lost | 734 | −$16 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? — No | 0.9563 | won | 2,120 | $93 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.9919 | won | 64 | $1 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? — Yes | 0.8716 | won | 247 | $32 |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? — Yes | 0.2090 | won | 757 | $599 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? — Yes | 0.0142 | lost | 859 | −$12 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — Yes | 0.0222 | lost | 21,380 | −$475 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? — Yes | 0.0276 | lost | 15,881 | −$438 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? — Yes | 0.0700 | lost | 90 | −$6 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Yes | 0.4160 | lost | 1,231 | −$512 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? — No | 0.9658 | won | 28 | $1 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0120 | lost | 16,112 | −$194 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — No | 0.0123 | lost | 1,429 | −$18 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0054 | lost | 21,545 | −$116 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0110 | lost | 3,170 | −$35 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? — No | 0.9920 | won | 9 | $0 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.4715 | won | 3,290 | $1.7K |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.4704 | lost | 2,238 | −$1.1K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — Yes | 0.0191 | lost | 18,758 | −$357 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? — Yes | 0.0031 | lost | 2,103 | −$7 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.6317 | won | 554 | $204 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →