Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1174

across 318 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+53%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

6.9pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

47%

151 of 318 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	67	3%	3%	−0pp
10–25%	52	17%	10%	−7pp
25–40%	28	34%	39%	+6pp
40–60%	48	51%	46%	−5pp
60–75%	41	67%	85%	+18pp
75–90%	44	83%	93%	+11pp
90–100%	38	97%	92%	−5pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$78.8K

25 open positions

Largest position

43%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$5.9K

against $78.8K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $9.1K across 318 positions, with $622 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? — No	0.1369	lost	2,826	−$387
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? — No	0.0517	lost	8,035	−$415
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? — Yes	0.2200	lost	20	−$4
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? — No	0.3921	won	531	$323
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? — No	0.0651	lost	3,531	−$230
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? — Yes	0.0190	lost	1,488	−$28
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? — Yes	0.0447	lost	589	−$26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? — Yes	0.0355	lost	476	−$17
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? — No	0.6893	won	2,215	$688
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? — Yes	0.0552	lost	2,905	−$160
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? — No	0.0190	lost	300	−$6
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? — No	0.0369	lost	1,000	−$37
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? — No	0.3000	lost	2,167	−$650
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? — No	0.0500	lost	1,874	−$94
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? — No	0.8700	won	5	$1
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? — No	0.5800	won	2,486	$1.0K
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? — No	0.0600	lost	128	−$8
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? — No	0.4583	lost	3,855	−$1.8K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — Yes	0.9990	won	5,954	$6
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — No	0.1396	lost	25,998	−$3.6K
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National Intelligence? — No	0.9300	won	5	$0
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intelligence by December 31, 2026? — Yes	0.2407	lost	1,554	−$374
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? — No	0.0710	lost	45	−$3
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National Intelligence? — Yes	0.0800	lost	117	−$9
Will Trump announce Michael Ellis as the next Director of National Intelligence? — No	0.9360	won	175	$11
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intelligence? — No	0.9566	won	80	$3
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intelligence? — Yes	0.1100	lost	52	−$6
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — No	0.7717	won	1,801	$411
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown? — Yes	0.8633	won	3,198	$437
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown? — No	0.0100	lost	200	−$2
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? — Yes	0.8420	won	805	$127
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Yes	0.2244	lost	2,317	−$520
Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals — Baltimore Orioles	0.2290	lost	5	−$1
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? — Yes	0.6900	won	50	$16
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? — Yes	0.5700	won	100	$43
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale? — No	0.0800	lost	55	−$4
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale? — Yes	0.6700	won	55	$18
Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? — Yes	0.2200	lost	150	−$33
Jynxzi vs Speed: who wins in Chess? — Jynxzi	0.8246	won	112	$20
Jynxzi vs Speed: who wins in Fortnite? — Jynxzi	0.2500	lost	29	−$7
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? — Yes	0.0183	lost	2,666	−$49
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? — No	0.7499	won	800	$200
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 6 hours? — No	0.8900	won	56	$6
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026? — No	0.8170	won	32	$6
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? — Yes	0.4479	lost	137	−$61
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? — Yes	0.2846	won	1,677	$1.2K
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16? — Yes	0.1300	won	517	$450
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15? — Yes	0.6509	won	55	$19
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14? — Yes	0.6260	won	174	$65
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13? — Yes	0.2000	won	100	$80
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? — Yes	0.1122	lost	55	−$6
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.2500	won	7	$5
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by July 31, 2026? — No	0.9710	won	132	$4
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? — Yes	0.9655	won	122	$4
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? — No	0.0060	lost	519	−$3
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? — No	0.0100	lost	1,690	−$17
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? — Yes	0.5198	lost	173	−$90
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? — Yes	0.0010	lost	1,642	−$2
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? — Yes	0.1700	lost	2,707	−$460
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? — Yes	0.2395	lost	196	−$47

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →