Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1962

across 717 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+21%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

3.9pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

55%

392 of 717 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	18	6%	6%	−0pp
10–25%	40	18%	20%	+2pp
25–40%	84	32%	25%	−7pp
40–60%	237	51%	45%	−6pp
60–75%	152	67%	64%	−3pp
75–90%	133	83%	80%	−2pp
90–100%	53	95%	96%	+1pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

0 open positions

Largest position

n/a

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

n/a

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

against $0 of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $14.4K across 717 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens — Elise Mertens	0.6066	won	1,432	$563
Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Diane Parry	0.5083	won	984	$484
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — Arthur Fery	0.6800	won	5,000	$1.6K
Philadelphia: Tereza Valentova vs Julia Grabher — Julia Grabher	0.0794	lost	5,300	−$421
Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Ignacio Buse	0.5900	won	4,352	$1.8K
Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens — Yulia Starodubtseva	0.0360	lost	3,250	−$117
Winston-Salem Open: Fabian Marozsan vs James Duckworth — Fabian Marozsan	0.4900	lost	120	−$59
Winston-Salem Open: Fabian Marozsan vs James Duckworth — James Duckworth	0.5802	won	3,478	$1.5K
Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry — Clara Tauson	0.4800	lost	2,541	−$1.2K
Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry — Diane Parry	0.5324	won	1,002	$469
Philadelphia: Fiona Crawley vs Julia Grabher — Julia Grabher	0.6610	won	2,138	$725
US Open, Qualification WTA: Elvina Kalieva vs Vendula Valdmannova — Vendula Valdmannova	0.4585	lost	2,853	−$1.3K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Tristan Schoolkate — Liam Draxl	0.5825	lost	4,518	−$2.6K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Elvina Kalieva vs Vendula Valdmannova — Elvina Kalieva	0.5771	won	661	$279
US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Harriet Dart — Harriet Dart	0.2404	won	2,005	$1.5K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Kei Nishikori vs Rei Sakamoto — Rei Sakamoto	0.5891	won	1,867	$767
US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Martyna Kubka — Kristina Liutova	0.8200	won	2,000	$360
US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucie Havlickova vs Nao Hibino — Lucie Havlickova	0.8523	won	13	$2
Monterrey Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Nikola Bartunkova — Darja Vidmanova	0.5437	lost	1,517	−$825
US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Tomas Barrios — Tomas Barrios	0.7900	won	2,000	$420
US Open, Qualification WTA: Julieta Pareja vs Lucrezia Stefanini — Julieta Pareja	0.4000	lost	2,000	−$800
US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Tomas Barrios — Daniel Rincon	0.4900	lost	1,035	−$507
Monterrey Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Clara Tauson — Clara Tauson	0.6953	won	13,591	$4.1K
Monterrey Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Clara Tauson — Ekaterina Alexandrova	0.5567	lost	7,414	−$4.1K
Monterrey Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Alycia Parks — Maja Chwalinska	0.7815	lost	1,111	−$868
US Open, Qualification WTA: Vendula Valdmannova vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich — Aliaksandra Sasnovich	0.4115	lost	1,300	−$535
Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Capucine Jauffret — Oksana Selekhmeteva	0.5403	won	1,117	$514
Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Capucine Jauffret — Capucine Jauffret	0.0837	lost	13,783	−$1.2K
Winston-Salem Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs James Duckworth — Lorenzo Sonego	0.5803	lost	1,028	−$596
US Open, Qualification WTA: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Storm Hunter — Yeon-Woo Ku	0.6100	lost	1,092	−$666
US Open, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Lucie Havlickova — Moyuka Uchijima	0.4638	lost	1,625	−$754
US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Penickova vs Harriet Dart — Kristina Penickova	0.3700	lost	1,000	−$370
US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume — Tyra Caterina Grant	0.6000	lost	1,000	−$600
US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Jack Pinnington Jones — Otto Virtanen	0.2603	won	1,505	$1.1K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Julieta Pareja vs Iryna Shymanovich — Julieta Pareja	0.6800	won	700	$224
US Open, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Carson Branstine — Linda Fruhvirtova	0.4250	lost	200	−$85
US Open, Qualification ATP: Daniel Rincon vs Jordan Lee — Jordan Lee	0.1419	lost	1,050	−$149
US Open, Qualification WTA: Robin Montgomery vs Jeline Vandromme — Jeline Vandromme	0.4500	lost	270	−$122
Monterrey Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Diane Parry — Oleksandra Oliynykova	0.2599	lost	1,623	−$422
US Open, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Liam Draxl — Liam Draxl	0.6000	won	8,000	$3.2K
Winston-Salem Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Lorenzo Sonego — Adrian Mannarino	0.2897	lost	7,954	−$2.3K
Monterrey Open: Panna Udvardy vs Maya Joint — Maya Joint	0.4200	lost	2,000	−$840
US Open, Qualification ATP: Seong-Chan Hong vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Nikoloz Basilashvili	0.3100	lost	3,226	−$1000
Winston-Salem Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Martin Damm — Daniil Medvedev	0.5634	lost	1,331	−$750
Winston-Salem Open: Raphael Collignon vs Rinky Hijikata — Raphael Collignon	0.5571	lost	350	−$195
US Open, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Andrea Pellegrino — Andrea Pellegrino	0.5900	lost	261	−$154
Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Cruz Hewitt — Cruz Hewitt	0.1800	lost	48	−$9
US Open, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Leyre Romero Gormaz — Joanna Garland	0.5900	won	70	$29
US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova — Tatiana Prozorova	0.5200	lost	3	−$2
Philadelphia: Anastasia Zakharova vs Kylie Collins — Kylie Collins	0.2700	won	300	$219
US Open, Qualification WTA: Suzan Lamens vs Emerson Jones — Emerson Jones	0.3700	lost	237	−$88
US Open, Qualification WTA: Jordyn Hazelitt vs Harriet Dart — Jordyn Hazelitt	0.0657	lost	1,008	−$66
US Open, Qualification ATP: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Trevor Svajda — Trevor Svajda	0.4587	lost	281	−$129
Philadelphia: Talia Gibson vs Lizette Cabrera — Lizette Cabrera	0.4800	won	300	$156
Philadelphia: Lois Boisson vs Capucine Jauffret — Capucine Jauffret	0.1340	won	15,884	$13.8K
Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston — Taylah Preston	0.6800	lost	1,500	−$1.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Daniel Rincon — Daniel Rincon	0.7600	won	455	$109
US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Luka Pavlovic	0.3596	won	499	$319
US Open, Qualification ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Daniel Rincon — Titouan Droguet	0.5460	lost	2,500	−$1.4K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Jordan Lee — Mark Lajal	0.4700	lost	380	−$179

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →