Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 13 | 6% | 8% | +2pp |
| 10–25% | 40 | 18% | 15% | −3pp |
| 25–40% | 46 | 32% | 30% | −2pp |
| 40–60% | 65 | 50% | 46% | −4pp |
| 60–75% | 28 | 66% | 64% | −1pp |
| 75–90% | 25 | 81% | 92% | +11pp |
| 90–100% | 30 | 95% | 90% | −5pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $484.6K across 247 positions, with $539 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — No | 0.2900 | lost | 11,057 | −$3.2K |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? — Yes | 0.5922 | won | 51,483 | $21.0K |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? — No | 0.4336 | lost | 7,897 | −$3.4K |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? — No | 0.6100 | lost | 1,277 | −$779 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? — No | 0.3400 | lost | 17,106 | −$5.8K |
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — No | 0.9310 | won | 888 | $61 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes | 0.1863 | won | 8,905 | $7.2K |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? — No | 0.9329 | won | 1,175 | $79 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — No | 0.3597 | lost | 21 | −$8 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.9477 | won | 981 | $51 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 133,478 | −$267 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? — Yes | 0.9466 | won | 11,810 | $630 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? — No | 0.4100 | lost | 41 | −$17 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? — Yes | 0.3100 | lost | 5 | −$2 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? — Yes | 0.3600 | won | 449 | $287 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? — No | 0.9270 | won | 200 | $15 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? — No | 0.7800 | lost | 2,500 | −$1.9K |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? — No | 0.7476 | won | 8,812 | $2.2K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No | 0.4755 | won | 4,775 | $2.5K |
| Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? — Yes | 0.9400 | won | 5,000 | $300 |
| Will three people dissent the July Fed decision? — Yes | 0.1200 | won | 100 | $88 |
| Will one person dissent the July Fed decision? — No | 0.7719 | won | 1,527 | $348 |
| Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? — No | 0.7602 | won | 1,022 | $245 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.7700 | won | 114 | $26 |
| Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? — Yes | 0.9968 | won | 32,727 | $105 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0850 | lost | 986 | −$84 |
| Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? — Yes | 0.5100 | lost | 4,100 | −$2.1K |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1600 | won | 30,000 | $25.2K |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0260 | lost | 30,000 | −$780 |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0180 | lost | 30,000 | −$540 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverev — Alexander Zverev | 0.6300 | won | 5 | $2 |
| Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? — Yes | 0.0745 | lost | 9,667 | −$721 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? — No | 0.9958 | won | 22,214 | $93 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? — Yes | 0.1318 | lost | 20,412 | −$2.7K |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? — No | 0.8000 | won | 2,500 | $500 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.6165 | won | 4,697 | $1.8K |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? — Yes | 0.3565 | lost | 623 | −$222 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? — No | 0.8300 | won | 255 | $43 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? — No | 0.8000 | won | 482 | $96 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.3921 | won | 5,475 | $3.3K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Yes | 0.3793 | lost | 78,654 | −$29.8K |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.1842 | lost | 11,111 | −$2.0K |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? — Yes | 0.2118 | won | 32,614 | $25.7K |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.3627 | lost | 46,393 | −$16.8K |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? — No | 0.2500 | won | 472 | $354 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — Yes | 0.1263 | lost | 75,565 | −$9.5K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — Yes | 0.5780 | won | 12,163 | $5.1K |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? — No | 0.5471 | lost | 4,328 | −$2.4K |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.5500 | lost | 1,000 | −$550 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? — No | 0.6072 | lost | 2,475 | −$1.5K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No | 0.5900 | won | 3,638 | $1.5K |
| US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? — No | 0.5600 | lost | 2,672 | −$1.5K |
| US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? — No | 0.5497 | lost | 7,126 | −$3.9K |
| US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? — No | 0.6460 | lost | 1,189 | −$768 |
| US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? — No | 0.6310 | lost | 6,080 | −$3.8K |
| US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026? — No | 0.6497 | lost | 1,102 | −$716 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? — No | 0.5252 | lost | 4,891 | −$2.6K |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? — No | 0.5225 | lost | 9,020 | −$4.7K |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.4200 | won | 10 | $6 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.3700 | won | 11,379 | $7.2K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →