Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1549

across 297 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+27%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

3.7pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

31%

91 of 297 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	76	5%	7%	+2pp
10–25%	76	16%	16%	+0pp
25–40%	55	31%	31%	−0pp
40–60%	37	51%	57%	+6pp
60–75%	18	66%	44%	−22pp
75–90%	19	82%	68%	−14pp
90–100%	16	96%	94%	−2pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$165.5K

275 open positions

Largest position

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

$18.0K

against $165.5K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $15.8K across 297 positions, with $1.7K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch? — No	0.1157	lost	3,073	−$356
Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch? — No	0.5783	won	600	$253
GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch? — No	0.2000	lost	60	−$12
GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch? — No	0.0566	lost	1,700	−$96
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? — No	0.1300	lost	862	−$112
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch? — No	0.2500	lost	125	−$31
Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch? — Yes	0.0965	lost	930	−$90
Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch? — No	0.0610	lost	434	−$26
Fluent FDV above $500M one day after launch? — Yes	0.1220	lost	10	−$1
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0034 by December 31, 2026? — Yes	0.7700	won	67	$15
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? — No	0.0900	lost	1,470	−$132
Will $ANSEM reach $0.4 before 2027? — No	0.6000	lost	384	−$230
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? — No	0.5070	lost	108	−$55
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? — No	0.3993	lost	1,400	−$559
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0050 by December 31, 2026? — No	0.8543	lost	115	−$98
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0054 by December 31, 2026? — No	0.8725	lost	27	−$23
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0046 by December 31, 2026? — No	0.8300	lost	10	−$8
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0042 by December 31, 2026? — No	0.8200	lost	300	−$246
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0038 by December 31, 2026? — No	0.7423	lost	549	−$408
Ethereum flipped in 2026? — Yes	0.4678	won	263	$140
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? — Yes	0.1519	lost	1,683	−$256
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? — Yes	0.1555	lost	1,577	−$245
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? — Yes	0.0659	lost	125	−$8
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? — Yes	0.4892	won	817	$417
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? — No	0.7669	won	813	$190
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? — Yes	0.1748	lost	1,245	−$218
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? — Yes	0.5531	won	2,361	$1.1K
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? — Yes	0.2539	lost	764	−$194
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? — Yes	0.4851	won	36	$18
USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch? — No	0.2527	lost	115	−$29
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? — No	0.8060	lost	755	−$609
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? — Yes	0.3938	won	7,797	$4.7K
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? — Yes	0.0910	won	2,664	$2.4K
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? — No	0.5143	lost	783	−$403
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? — No	0.2523	lost	1,700	−$429
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? — No	0.9400	lost	10	−$9
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan? — Yes	0.6313	lost	229	−$144
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan? — No	0.5990	lost	105	−$63
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? — No	0.0799	lost	2,409	−$192
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding? — No	0.0465	lost	1,555	−$72
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? — Yes	0.0223	lost	2,500	−$56
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? — Yes	0.0736	lost	415	−$31
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? — Yes	0.1416	lost	447	−$63
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? — Yes	0.2564	won	391	$290
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — No	0.2600	lost	1,000	−$260
Will MicroStrategy announce selling any Bitcoin by September 30, 2026? — No	0.0100	lost	1,400	−$14
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by September 30? — No	0.2700	lost	37	−$10
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? — No	0.4900	won	271	$138
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 in August? — No	0.5620	lost	80	−$45
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in August? — No	0.6905	lost	141	−$97
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 in August? — No	0.6045	lost	253	−$153
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 in August? — No	0.6452	lost	698	−$450
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 in August? — No	0.4649	lost	441	−$205
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 in August? — No	0.5827	lost	165	−$96
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $160 in August? — No	0.2033	lost	150	−$30
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0800	lost	63	−$5
Will China's CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? — Yes	0.0794	lost	314	−$25
Will China's CPI increase by between 1.1% and 1.2% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? — No	0.7556	won	72	$18
Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? — Yes	0.2882	lost	1,376	−$397
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France? — Yes	0.1383	lost	1,026	−$142

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →