Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 13 | 4% | 0% | −4pp |
| 10–25% | 22 | 18% | 9% | −9pp |
| 25–40% | 16 | 32% | 38% | +6pp |
| 40–60% | 52 | 50% | 48% | −2pp |
| 60–75% | 26 | 67% | 81% | +14pp |
| 75–90% | 16 | 82% | 75% | −7pp |
| 90–100% | 46 | 98% | 100% | +2pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
65% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $109.3K across 191 positions, with $940 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? — $60k | 0.2492 | lost | 9,237 | −$2.3K |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? — 80k | 0.8734 | won | 71,452 | $9.0K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? — Yes | 0.6989 | won | 55,578 | $16.7K |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in August? — No | 0.8066 | lost | 9,034 | −$7.3K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? — No | 0.5519 | lost | 8,250 | −$4.6K |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? — Yes | 0.5089 | won | 142 | $70 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? — No | 0.9540 | won | 245 | $11 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? — No | 0.6100 | won | 5,000 | $1.9K |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July? — No | 0.5948 | won | 33,286 | $13.5K |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July? — Yes | 0.4800 | lost | 1,329 | −$638 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 30? — No | 0.5741 | lost | 8,500 | −$4.9K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.6628 | won | 25,212 | $8.5K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.7644 | won | 83,113 | $19.6K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.2620 | lost | 119 | −$31 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? — Yes | 0.4326 | lost | 647 | −$280 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-15? — Yes | 0.3225 | lost | 31 | −$10 |
| Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Djokovic — Sinner | 0.6600 | won | 103 | $35 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? — Yes | 0.5858 | won | 300 | $124 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? — No | 0.5849 | won | 25,955 | $10.8K |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.5408 | lost | 2,959 | −$1.6K |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.6300 | lost | 4,905 | −$3.1K |
| Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9077 | won | 22,233 | $2.1K |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? — No | 0.7692 | won | 4,243 | $979 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? — Yes | 0.6761 | won | 296 | $96 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? — No | 0.6874 | won | 6,548 | $2.0K |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? — No | 0.7463 | won | 12,018 | $3.0K |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? — No | 0.9030 | won | 13,944 | $1.4K |
| Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners — Over | 0.8300 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? — No | 0.5874 | lost | 106 | −$62 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? — Yes | 0.7165 | lost | 1,382 | −$990 |
| Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5900 | lost | 169 | −$100 |
| Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score — No | 0.5700 | lost | 351 | −$200 |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? — Yes | 0.6060 | lost | 13 | −$8 |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2157 | lost | 450 | −$97 |
| France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 — Over | 0.7074 | won | 690 | $202 |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? — Yes | 0.4100 | lost | 61 | −$25 |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — Yes | 0.0160 | lost | 63 | −$1 |
| Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2100 | lost | 100 | −$21 |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? — Yes | 0.4100 | lost | 200 | −$82 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? — Yes | 0.4485 | lost | 260 | −$117 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? — Yes | 0.4654 | won | 14,656 | $7.8K |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? — No | 0.5800 | won | 380 | $160 |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? — Yes | 0.4163 | won | 1,321 | $771 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs — Spurs | 0.5106 | lost | 1,596 | −$815 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs — Spurs | 0.6400 | lost | 5,560 | −$3.6K |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? — Yes | 0.5900 | won | 508 | $208 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? — No | 0.9545 | won | 33,459 | $1.5K |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? — No | 0.6066 | won | 21,405 | $8.4K |
| Hugo Gaston vs. Gael Monfils: Total Sets O/U 3.5 — Under 3.5 | 0.5200 | lost | 558 | −$290 |
| Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils — Hugo Gaston | 0.8591 | won | 1,512 | $213 |
| Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy — Taylor Fritz | 0.8300 | lost | 301 | −$250 |
| Thunder vs. Spurs — Thunder | 0.4472 | lost | 134 | −$60 |
| Thunder vs. Lakers — Thunder | 0.5872 | won | 298 | $123 |
| Spread: Thunder (-10.5) — Thunder | 0.4149 | lost | 241 | −$100 |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves — Timberwolves | 0.3224 | won | 1,712 | $1.2K |
| Knicks vs. 76ers — 76ers | 0.2900 | lost | 172 | −$50 |
| Lakers vs. Thunder — Lakers | 0.1300 | lost | 769 | −$100 |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons — Cavaliers | 0.4100 | lost | 198 | −$81 |
| Spread: Thunder (-15.5) — Lakers | 0.5100 | lost | 473 | −$241 |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs — Spurs | 0.1500 | lost | 100 | −$15 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →