Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 11 | 5% | 9% | +4pp |
| 10–25% | 2 | 15% | 0% | −15pp |
| 25–40% | 3 | 34% | 33% | −1pp |
| 40–60% | 6 | 47% | 67% | +19pp |
| 60–75% | 7 | 66% | 86% | +20pp |
| 75–90% | 9 | 83% | 78% | −5pp |
| 90–100% | 78 | 97% | 90% | −7pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $18.0K across 116 positions, with $597 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August? — Yes | 0.6660 | won | 9,677 | $3.2K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? — Yes | 0.6014 | won | 26,726 | $10.7K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August? — Yes | 0.6527 | won | 7,570 | $2.6K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August? — No | 0.6557 | lost | 2,228 | −$1.5K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? — Yes | 0.6909 | won | 17,185 | $5.3K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? — Yes | 0.8641 | won | 9,505 | $1.3K |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? — No | 0.9810 | lost | 2,265 | −$2.2K |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August? — No | 0.9562 | lost | 1,557 | −$1.5K |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August? — Yes | 0.8250 | won | 306 | $53 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August? — Yes | 0.4495 | won | 1,890 | $1.0K |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in August? — Yes | 0.5498 | won | 471 | $212 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? — No | 0.9840 | lost | 1,407 | −$1.4K |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August? — No | 0.8300 | lost | 666 | −$553 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in August? — No | 0.8300 | lost | 420 | −$349 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August? — No | 0.9278 | lost | 606 | −$562 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? — No | 0.9832 | won | 98,423 | $1.7K |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of August 10 2026? — No | 0.9890 | won | 41 | $0 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of August 10 2026? — No | 0.7667 | won | 120 | $28 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of August 10 2026? — No | 0.9291 | won | 109 | $8 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of August 10 2026? — No | 0.9500 | won | 20 | $1 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? — No | 0.9980 | won | 22,593 | $46 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of August 3 2026? — Yes | 0.4136 | won | 16 | $9 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026? — Yes | 0.8712 | won | 726 | $93 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 3 2026? — No | 0.9850 | won | 200 | $3 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,850 Week of August 3 2026? — No | 0.9500 | won | 3 | $0 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026? — No | 0.9260 | lost | 452 | −$419 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of August 3 2026? — No | 0.9900 | lost | 700 | −$693 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of August 3 2026? — No | 0.9863 | won | 10,519 | $144 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of August 3 2026? — Yes | 0.3972 | won | 222 | $134 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of August 3 2026? — No | 0.9907 | won | 6,838 | $63 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of August 3 2026? — No | 0.9934 | won | 807 | $5 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of August 3 2026? — No | 0.9850 | won | 194 | $3 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of August 3 2026? — No | 0.9700 | lost | 270 | −$262 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 11,183 | $11 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July? — No | 0.7998 | won | 2,921 | $585 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July? — No | 0.9756 | won | 563 | $14 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? — No | 0.9494 | won | 7,743 | $392 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July? — No | 0.9859 | won | 26,490 | $373 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? — No | 0.9831 | won | 48,161 | $814 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July? — No | 0.9633 | won | 2,868 | $105 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? — No | 0.9939 | won | 3,565 | $22 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July? — No | 0.9708 | won | 6,821 | $199 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in July? — No | 0.9853 | won | 816 | $12 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in July? — No | 0.9071 | won | 28 | $3 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July? — No | 0.9649 | won | 4,222 | $148 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July? — No | 0.9784 | won | 1,190 | $26 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July? — No | 0.9887 | won | 3,426 | $39 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July? — No | 0.9900 | won | 450 | $5 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July? — No | 0.9890 | won | 40 | $0 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July? — No | 0.9543 | won | 11,633 | $532 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July? — No | 0.9719 | won | 8,427 | $237 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in July? — No | 0.9854 | won | 3,577 | $52 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July? — No | 0.9773 | won | 16,622 | $377 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July? — No | 0.9856 | won | 2,331 | $34 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July? — No | 0.9800 | won | 2,153 | $43 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? — Yes | 0.4065 | lost | 242 | −$98 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? — Yes | 0.1459 | lost | 382 | −$56 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July? — No | 0.9850 | won | 55,935 | $837 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? — No | 0.9601 | won | 4,630 | $185 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in July? — No | 0.5068 | lost | 243 | −$123 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →