Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1978

across 23 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+17%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

13.5pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

39%

9 of 23 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	9	3%	22%	+19pp
10–25%	2	16%	0%	−16pp
25–40%	1	38%	0%	−38pp
40–60%	2	56%	50%	−6pp
60–75%	8	67%	63%	−5pp
75–90%	1	84%	100%	+16pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$126

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

−$42

against $126 of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$24 across 23 positions, with $23 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Lionel Messi: 1+ shots — Yes	0.0092	lost	217	−$2
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 2.5 — Over	0.1600	lost	1,485	−$238
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? — Yes	0.0052	lost	12,574	−$65
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? — Yes	0.0277	lost	34,064	−$945
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Yes	0.1587	lost	33,244	−$5.3K
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? — Yes	0.0607	lost	1,647	−$100
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? — No	0.0209	won	7,331	$7.2K
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? — No	0.0458	won	3,274	$3.1K
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? — No	0.0039	lost	24,735	−$96
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? — Yes	0.0590	lost	53,991	−$3.2K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? — Yes	0.0280	lost	10,683	−$299
Delray Beach Open: Taylor Fritz vs Tommy Paul — Fritz	0.6000	lost	165	−$99
Delray Beach Open: Coleman Wong vs Flavio Cobolli — Wong	0.5300	lost	177	−$94
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov — Khachanov	0.3800	lost	526	−$200
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Khachanov (+1.5) — Alcaraz	0.7277	lost	275	−$200
Rio Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Francesco Passaro — Tabilo	0.6200	won	161	$61
Delray Beach Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Coleman Wong — Wong	0.6373	won	471	$171
Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Zhizhen Zhang — Mensik	0.7200	won	305	$85
Qatar Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Medvedev	0.7400	lost	203	−$150
Rio Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Mariano Navone — Cerundolo	0.6900	won	381	$118
Set Handicap: Korda (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5) — Korda	0.5900	won	263	$108
Qatar Open: Jesper de Jong vs Andrey Rublev — Rublev	0.8427	won	187	$29
Rio Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Emilio Nava — Tabilo	0.6600	won	150	$51

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →