04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.1283
across 544 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+48%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
4.6pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
56%
306 of 544 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 75 | 5% | 1% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 79 | 17% | 16% | −1pp |
| 25–40% | 63 | 33% | 43% | +10pp |
| 40–60% | 72 | 51% | 56% | +5pp |
| 60–75% | 74 | 68% | 76% | +8pp |
| 75–90% | 87 | 83% | 87% | +4pp |
| 90–100% | 94 | 96% | 99% | +3pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$147.0K
15 open positions
Largest position
20%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
3
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$42.9K
against $147.0K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$206.3K across 544 positions, with $469 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? — No | 0.5849 | won | 7,810 | $3.2K |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? — No | 0.4997 | lost | 9,246 | −$4.6K |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? — No | 0.3471 | lost | 147,860 | −$51.3K |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — No | 0.2913 | lost | 192,251 | −$56.0K |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? — No | 0.6000 | won | 543 | $217 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.9763 | won | 103,599 | $2.5K |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? — No | 0.3500 | won | 50 | $33 |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? — Yes | 0.4323 | lost | 23,420 | −$10.1K |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? — Yes | 0.2600 | won | 1,250 | $925 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? — Yes | 0.1396 | lost | 4,295 | −$600 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? — Yes | 0.6525 | won | 73,921 | $25.7K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? — Yes | 0.7309 | won | 82,449 | $22.2K |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? — No | 0.6963 | won | 39,964 | $12.1K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? — Yes | 0.7700 | won | 22,832 | $5.3K |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? — No | 0.7600 | won | 20,024 | $4.8K |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19? — Yes | 0.1223 | lost | 1,005 | −$123 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — Yes | 0.2429 | lost | 255,001 | −$61.9K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? — Yes | 0.1400 | lost | 1,439 | −$201 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? — No | 0.6294 | won | 10,480 | $3.9K |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.7307 | won | 110,585 | $29.8K |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.7026 | lost | 6,620 | −$4.7K |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.6211 | won | 3,919 | $1.5K |
| Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? — Yes | 0.1547 | lost | 23,214 | −$3.6K |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.3963 | lost | 8,546 | −$3.4K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Yes | 0.1213 | lost | 479,158 | −$58.1K |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.6313 | lost | 78,020 | −$49.3K |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? — No | 0.7169 | won | 51,590 | $14.6K |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? — Yes | 0.7451 | won | 3,073 | $783 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? — No | 0.5500 | lost | 1,997 | −$1.1K |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? — No | 0.2751 | lost | 42,680 | −$11.7K |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? — No | 0.3835 | lost | 244,377 | −$93.7K |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? — Yes | 0.3814 | won | 1,624 | $1.0K |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? — No | 0.8597 | won | 19,276 | $2.7K |
| Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? — Yes | 0.2900 | lost | 70 | −$20 |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.7436 | won | 2,920 | $749 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? — No | 0.3300 | lost | 10,000 | −$3.3K |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? — No | 0.3200 | won | 9,375 | $6.4K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.1400 | won | 72,563 | $62.4K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? — Yes | 0.0500 | lost | 39,408 | −$2.0K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — Yes | 0.0997 | lost | 106,638 | −$10.6K |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? — No | 0.6739 | won | 47,887 | $15.6K |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? — Yes | 0.2406 | lost | 4,161 | −$1.0K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.2824 | lost | 33,773 | −$9.5K |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0330 | lost | 49,355 | −$1.6K |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? — Yes | 0.9857 | won | 1,687 | $24 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.0945 | lost | 328,953 | −$31.1K |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? — No | 0.5471 | lost | 1,576 | −$862 |
| Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.6600 | won | 1,109 | $377 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.0075 | lost | 246,197 | −$1.8K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? — Yes | 0.2138 | lost | 250,363 | −$53.5K |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? — No | 0.6379 | lost | 10,752 | −$6.9K |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? — No | 0.3357 | lost | 235,694 | −$79.1K |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? — No | 0.9970 | won | 17,915 | $54 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? — Yes | 0.1400 | lost | 3,240 | −$454 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? — No | 0.9927 | won | 29,668 | $217 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — Yes | 0.8136 | won | 23,214 | $4.3K |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? — No | 0.9811 | won | 11,090 | $209 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? — No | 0.9390 | won | 53,761 | $3.3K |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? — Yes | 0.3526 | lost | 76,395 | −$26.9K |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? — No | 0.9450 | won | 50,000 | $2.8K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →